If you read my wrap-up for Week 12 published last Friday, you may remember that tomorrow we’re going to see a domestic catalyst event in Australia which could mean we diverge from whatever the US market does this evening.
That’s right: Australia gets its latest monthly Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) read from the ABS tomorrow at 11.30am AEDT – that’s 8.30am in the morning if you live in Perth.
So is there a way we can predict what will happen with any real certainty?
Not really, no. But it can be helpful to cast a wide net and take in a variety of views on which way CPI might go.
Here’s a speedrun through who’s expecting what.
- NAB: Analysts expect CPI in February to reflect a rise to 3.6% (y/y) from 3.4%
- ANZ: Analysts expect CPI in February to reflect a rise to 3.5%
- Westpac: Analysts expect CPI in February to reflect a rise to 3.8%
- Commonwealth: Analysts also expect data to rise to 3.8%
- AMP: Chief economist Shane Oliver expects CPI data to reflect a rise to 3.7%
- Bloomberg: A survey conducted by the media giant puts consensus at 3.5%
So why is everybody expecting a slight increase?
In short: higher fuel prices driven by a slightly higher price for brent crude oil; a drop in holiday-season sales events at retail outlets, and ever-increasing rental inflation.
The price of building a house, or dwelling if you will, has also increased – suggesting this isn’t necessarily going to absolve itself any time soon.
The invisible hand of the property market may need some good old legislative encouragement. That would mean, of course, our two major parties might not receive so many precious donations.
I tend to just see them as one purple-coloured entity at this point.
Time will tell – less than 24 hours, in fact.
As always for a CPI day, expect some volatility. Just for the hell of it, looking at the range we’ve got, and being an oilcentric thinker – I’m going to call 3.6%. Gulp.