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Welcome to 2025 – for those of you with Christmas breaks running beyond Monday, January 6, let me know if you’d like to change roles.
Australasian alcohol stocks took a hit out the gate on Monday following calls from the U.S. Surgeon General proposing alcohol bottles boast cancer warning labels.
Research showing alcohol causes cancer has been the basis of PSAs on Aussie TVs for years but for America to mandate warning labels would represent a monumental shift. Treasury Wine Estates felt the pinch more than retail-exposed Coles and Woolworths.
Elsewhere, Insignia has been fielding takeovers from offshore giants in a situation similar to last year’s off-market AirTrunk deal. Making matters interesting, however: Insignia denied some press coverage in The Australian on Friday that it had received an offer from New York’s Brookfield. Private equity firms CC Capital and Bain Capital continue to bid.
Let’s talk Australian economics: The country continues to argue about when the RBA will cut rates but most betters anticipate February or April. Core inflation in the country remains just above the upper end of the RBA’s target band at 3.2%. The next quarterly read will more likely be the deciding factor for the RBA over more volatile month-on-month CPI data.
In AI news, OpenAI has started talking about its desire to create ‘superintelligence.’ Superintelligence isn’t defined yet in any meaningful way but one gets the sensation firm chief Sam Altman is talking about a next-gen chatbot capable of replicating human work.
This time for real. Just ignore the fact its AI products have become mere search engines, but superintelligence could be the buzzword that pushes valuations even higher on Wall Street.
In what could perhaps be a bigger moneymaker for an AI innovation, Samsung has moved to make its TVs ‘AI-equipped’ in the sense that you will be able to buy products shown on-screen, identified by smart algorithms. Whether that makes its share price pop in Korea is the question.
It’s been an interesting week in geopolitics, too. Elon Musk is now advising Europe on what to do without its constituents’ requests; Donald Trump has expressed a desire for the U.S. to buy Greenland. Meanwhile, Canada’s Trudeau has confirmed he’s resigning from his role as Prime Minister, and, South Korea’s impeached President Yoon continues to evade arrest.
South Korean politics are often as dramatic as the soap operas the country is also known for.
And here’s a bit of gloom and doom which one really ought to pay attention to, if you have the mental hardware to rationally process it: In 2024, the planet breached the 1.5C Paris Agreement target. Uh oh.
Probably expect more wars in the years ahead. Our Defence Department already is.
Australian Equities
- Energy Transition Metals jumps on Donald Trump’s bid to ‘buy Greenland’
- Insignia Financial cops $2B+ takeover bid from private equity firm
- Mesoblast rattles confidences with trading halt ahead of ‘proposed financing’
Australian Economy
- Core inflation drops to 3.2% in November as target band inches closer
- But retail sales jumped 0.8% in Nov’ on black Friday; not as bad as some guesses
- Money markets, ever optimistic, price in 100% chance of April 1 RBA rate cut
International Equities
- US Steel & Nippon join forces to sue Biden admin over merger block
- Samsung adds AI to TVs in bid to enhance product placement sales
- Asian alcohol stocks hit by US surgeon general cancer label proposal
International Economies
- US notes upside inflation risk has increased in latest FOMC minutes
- China’s deflationary doldrums enters third year
- Vietnamese economy beats forecasts in 2024 with +7% GDP growth
Commodities
- Goldman Sachs pushes US$3Koz call from late 2025 to mid-2026
- Oil prices heat up as northern weather cools to kick off 2025
- Uranium retains upside on new Kazakh issues but still down -30% YoY
Geopolitics
- Expect climate conflicts: planet Earth breached 1.5C Paris Agreement target in 2024
- Justin Trudeau announces resignation ahead of national Canadian election
- South Korea’s Yoon continues to effectively evade arrest using team as guards
Regulatory, Odds & End
- Exxon takes Twiggy Forrest to court in Texas over alleged smear campaign
- Large Australian companies to commence reporting Scope 3 emissions for FY25
- Keep them excited and wanting: OpenAI now talking about ‘superintelligence’
- UFC chief Dana White, not long after speaking at Trump win speech, joins board at Meta
