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Perhaps most interesting this week was what oil markets didn’t react to – comments from US President Donald Trump that the US should take over Gaza, after getting rid of the Palestinians.
The sheer audacity of this claim one would generally expect to see oil prices jump on perceived risks of Middle Eastern conflict, but it only added about a dollar before paring gains. (This is Brent Crude, not WTI).
While it’s true that the world has moved past the oil supply dynamics that fuelled the Iran oil crisis in the 1970’s (which still remains firmly anchored in market psychology,) I think we’re seeing something else – early onset Trump fatigue.
Trump introduced massive tariffs on Mexico and Canada then wound them back twelve hours later. Only then did he slap 10% tariffs on China, which were clearly the real main course. Except by then, the market had gotten over the Mexico and Canada shock, and so the China tariffs didn’t tank the market.
(This, I expect, was the plan all along.) They did tank the AUD, however – but we’ve since recovered to around 62 cents, which appears to be what forex markets perceive as fair value for the Aussie.
The fallout of the China tariffs, and what they mean for Australia, continue to unwind. China has in return put tariffs on US oil and gas imports, and, has also moved to further curb exports of critical minerals.
So far, nothing too crazy. But these things take time to play out (and history longer to retroactively de-tangle.) Trump and Xi are set to talk in the next 24 hours.
Talking of Australia, we hit another intraday and closing all time high this week (8,566pts and 8,520pts respectively,) but apart from Chemist Warehouse earnings looking like a boon for Sigma, not too much happened elsewhere.
It was, in my view, a fairly boring week down under. You can check out HotCopper Highlights to see what drew attention on the forums this week.
Oh, one last thing: a survey of LME traders conducted by Reuters found many are expecting aluminium to have a bull run in 2025.
And a note to the reader: I am off to Darwin in Week 7, so I’ll be back with you in Week 8 for a weekly wrap.
Until then – stay safe, and we’ll see you on Monday.
Australian Equities
- Centuria Office REIT converting empty office space into a data centre
- Trump triggers four month low for ASX after tariffs
Australian Economy
International Equities
International Economies
- EU, facing vague tariff threats, tells Trump to expect retaliation
- Canadian stores start to boycott US products in response to Trump tariffs
Commodities
- Aluminum expected to be the base metal of the year on the LME
- Australia clocks bumper wheat harvest as WA live export ban leads to more crops
- Indonesian coal output hit record highs in 2024
- US oil, natgas prices unlikely to see much tariff impact: Goldman Sachs
- ITC upholds Novonix-led claim China has suppressed US graphite industry
Geopolitics
- China curbs critmin exports in response to tariffs
- Trump to cut off all funding to South Africa; Elon’s white farmer tweets probable cause
- Canada to take US to WTO over Trump tariffs
Regulatory, Odds & Ends
