Market Open: Mass confusion reigns over whether US-Israeli ceasfire with Iran actually gets extended

At The Bell — Australian shares are heading for a -0.6% drop at open Wednesday, with the drop mostly coming on confusion around the U.S.-Israeli ceasefire with Iran. Washington this morning said the two-week ceasefire has now been extended to “allow diplomatic efforts,” but Iran is denying everything.

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Tehran reportedly sees Trump’s posturing as a “plot to buy time” for a surprise strike. They’re also willing to go on the front foot, too, apparently; in the country’s Tasnim news outlet, Iran warned: “If the U.S. wants to maintain the shadow of war, it should consider the Strait effectively fully closed.”

Oil had surged above US$100 a barrel late in New York before sliding back into double digits on Trump’s first messages, though it could well tick back up above the ton with all this confusion on whether the ceasefire will live on.

There’s also been no indication from the U.S. that its ongoing blockade will be lifted anytime soon. Take whatever that means in your own way.

Most other global traders have taken it as quite hawkish: Wall Street’s three leading indices all dropped the same as where Aus is at in futures, -0.6%, while Europe’s Stoxx lost -0.9% and London’s FTSE dumped -1.1%.

ASX stocks to watch

Now, let’s talk stocks. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins has struck a deal between Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) companies SCBP and Incitec to underwrite any additional purchases of imported fertiliser. This deal looks quite similar to structures set up for Ampol (ASX:ALD) and Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) last week.

In a fairly similar vein, BHP (ASX:BHP) has been “drafted” by Albanese’s government to consult on dwindling diesel supplies. BHP will loan the Prime Minister a team of its global fuel experts to help navigate the ongoing crisis.

Elsewhere, Woolworths (ASX:WOW) category managers will be fronting Federal Court today to speak on what a “fair dinkum” discount actually means.

Then, around the traps, Qantas (ASX:QAN) is now starting to discount millions of fares to try and get people flying again, and Rio Tinto’s (ASX:RIO) jumping on “the major AI capex boom” to kick-start its copper strategy.

And, WA Gold (ASX:WAU) believes Abercromby can be a long-term mine.

Buck and ore

Now – in forex, the Oz dollar buys US 71.5c.

In commodities, all in the greenback,

Brent Crude remains the top watch, with more doubts around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire leaving it up +3.5%, at $98.89/Bbl. Then,

Iron Ore is down around -0.25%, to $106.65 a tonne in Singapore,

Gold‘s down again, now at $4,731/ounce today, and,

US natgas futures are $2.66 per gigajoule.

That’s HotCopper’s Market Open, I’m Isaac McIntyre – good luck today.

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