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- Record gold exploration outlay of $566M June quarter 2026
- Gold prices supporting exploration and project developments
- Large-scale exploration projects advanced
- Gold export numbers tipped to slide
Continued high prices have helped gold exploration expenditure reach a record high of $566 million in the June quarter 2026, up 24% from the previous quarter.
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Higher gold prices also improved the viability of lower-grade deposits, leading to an uptick in new developments.
According to new data from the Federal Department of Industry, Science and Resources latest Resources and Energy Quarterly report strong gold prices continued to support exploration and project developments in 2026. Several large-scale exploration projects advanced, including new drilling campaigns, and investment commitments, reflecting industry confidence in the long-term outlook for gold.
This upsurge will see Australian gold production rise with new mines and expansions of existing mines.
Australian mine production is expected to climb from 340 tonnes in 2025–26 to 382 tonnes in 2030–31.
However, export earnings are forecast to edge down from $70 billion in 2025–26 to $68 billion through the outlook period to 2030–31.
The report by the Office of the Chief Economist suggested lower gold prices and a modest rise in the AUD/USD exchange rate are projected to offset rising export volumes.
The latest RWQ suggests global gold supply should grow through 2028 before easing slightly over rest of the outlook period
Global mine output rose 3.2% year-on-year in H1 2026, as new mines and brownfield expansions were encouraged by sustained high gold prices. International gold mine output is expected to rise gradually to 4,028 tonnes by 2031 despite lower ore grades. Africa is expected to lead growth in mine output – mainly driven by Mali and Ghana – while (Central) Asia, North America and Russia also contribute through new projects and mine expansions.
Scrap recycling is forecast to decline by 1.3% in 2026 and then gradually fall to 1,200 tonnes in 2031 as prices ease from historically high levels. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and energy disruptions could raise diesel costs, potentially putting pressure on gold output.
The REQ forecast that investment demand, central bank purchases and geopolitical risks will keep prices historically high
Prices are forecast to average US$4,600 an ounce in 2026, up 34% year-on-year, and to remain high through 2028, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, resilient investment demand and inflation concerns. Prices are forecast to ease to US$3,760 an ounce (real terms) by 2031 as US inflation moderates and global growth recovers. Compared to the June REQ, prices are slightly lower in the near term but broadly unchanged in later years.
Elsewhere, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports that the precious metal has received increased attention from some pension funds as they reassess portfolio construction against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks and a less reliable equity-bond correlation.
The WGC said that faced with ongoing geopolitical risks and an uncertain economic backdrop, effective diversification and risk mitigation remain important considerations for pension fund investors.
“High quality government bonds have long fulfilled the traditional role of a diversifier in investment portfolios, offering protection during periods when risk assets have come under pressure,” the WGC wrote.
“In recent years, however, the correlation between bonds and equities has increased significantly, raising questions about how investors should approach diversification and portfolio construction.
“Gold is one asset that certain pension funds consider alongside equities and bonds in broad-based portfolios. As a liquid asset with historically low-to-negative correlation to equities during periods of market stress, gold has exhibited correlation patterns that support diversification.”