- Australian resource exports rebound strongly, and earnings have been significantly above the expected numbers.
- Artificial intelligence growth driving resource demand.
- Iron ore is powering export performance.
The AI investment boom, the global energy transition and efforts by many nations to secure supply chains are expected to continue to generate demand for Australia’s resources and energy commodities, according to new federal data.
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The much-delayed Australian government Resources and Energy Quarterly publication has been released this morning, upgrading forecasts with Australia’s export revenue tipped to hit $405 billion in 2025–26 and $416 billion in 2026–27, up $22 billion and $42 billion respectively from the December forecasts.
However, after that five-year outlook period, export revenue is expected to fall back significantly after 2026–27, to $371 billion in 2030–31.
Federal Minister for Resources and Northern Australia, Madeleine King, said the latest forecasts underline the strength and resilience of Australia’s resources and energy sector.
“Australia’s resources and energy sector continues to deliver strong export earnings that support jobs, investment and economic growth, despite geopolitical uncertainty,” Minister King told readers this morning.
“Export volumes continue to remain strong, underlining Australia’s role as a reliable and stable supplier of resources and energy to our export partners and the region.”
The report found that capital expenditure in resource and energy sectors continues to rise, reflecting the ongoing strength of Australia’s industry and economy.
The latest Resources and Energy forecasts – which were delayed by several months while the government assessed the impact of the Middle East crisis – are based on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz from July, but acknowledge it’ll take time for trade to return to pre-conflict levels.
The study found iron ore exports will continue to account for more than 25% of all resources and energy exports, despite easing prices, while higher gold prices and volumes will see export earnings peak at around $73 billion in 2026–27.
Global demand for copper, nickel, aluminium, lithium, and steel is likely to increase due to renewable power generation and electrification, while LNG volumes remain strong despite easing global prices over the outlook period.
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