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BHP ‘quite sure’ iron ore demand will stay solid in face of forecast China slowdown

ASX 200, ASX News, Materials
ASX:BHP      MCAP $225.6B
21 October 2025 10:56 (AEDT)

Image: BHP Group

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) isn’t too worried about its iron sales, even under the shadow of China, the world’s largest consumer of the commodity and BHP’s biggest customer, banning local steelmakers from buying from the group.

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The Australian steelmaker reported today, on October 21, telling shareholders it had mined a record amount of iron ore over the last three months.

While there was no specific mention from BHP on its China standoff, there was plenty to be read between lines – including the Oz blue-chip confirming it sees demand for its key commodity to “stay resilient” this year.

“Overall macro-economic signals for commodity demand remain resilient, and global growth forecasts are moving higher,” said group chief Mike Henry.

The biggest reference to Beijing at all came as follows, from Mr Henry: “While we expect some deceleration in growth in the second half of 2025, in China we still expect gross domestic product growth of 5% for the year.”

The steelmaker originally dropped below $42 after the China iron ore boycott news originally broke, but has climbed +5.2% this last trading week.

As much as +2% of those gains have come through this morning so far, with Aussie investors seeming to like the front BHP is showing China. The group also recently told the government it was “all posturing” from Beijing.

Numbers-wise, there’s a lot traders are liking, too: BHP’s full-year production guidance has remained relatively unchanged at between 258 million and 269 million tonnes. Sales have been in line with last year, the group reported, with a 5% increase in sales of higher-value lump iron ore the standout there.

Total copper production hiked 4% to 494,000 tonnes, with full-year guidance also untouched in this quarter; it’s up to two million tonnes.

Heading into lunchtime today, BHP is selling at around $44.05/sh.

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