Chalice jumps on Putin nickel export ban threat – but then there’s bad news

Former market darling and Indonesian nickel victim Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) has seen its shares jump nearly 7% in Thursday trades after Putin threatened to ban exports from his country across a basket of minerals.

The company wants to mine nickel (EV batteries,) copper (decarbonisation tech) and palladium (a critical mineral used in desalination which could fuel green hydrogen production.)

Putin specifically singled out nickel in his statements on Russian state-run TV on Wednesday night, so, it’s not hard to reverse-engineer the value proposition driving the psychology behind that share price boost.

So, that’s the good news for shareholders. But then there’s bad news.

According to reports from West Australia, where the company’s perhaps unfortunately named Gonneville project is located – right next to a state forest – the company is selling off a key asset.

That key asset?: a workers’ camp purchased during resource drilling and clearly intended to house drillers and other mine labourers once Gonneville got up and running.

For clarity, it bought an old bed n’ breakfast in the high-wealth regional retreat Shire of Toodyay. (The company has been battling tree tories for years.) But it’s now getting rid of any location where its workers could stay on a swing – which, sadly, means they’re not expecting any workers any time soon.

Not all hope is lost. Chalice did get across the line an MOU with Mitsubishi earlier this year with a view towards the critical minerals it intends to mine at Gonneville. Drillers were active on-site earlier this year following approvals in late 2023, then nickel prices tanked.

That nickel price crash came from massive amounts of Indonesian supply, bankrolled by a range of Chinese miners. Whether supply chain security initiatives (designed to decouple Western mineral supply from Chinese sources) will see Mitsubishi – Japanese – cough up costs to help develop Gonneville remains to be seen.

That’s getting a bit speculative and unknowable – but it’s clear what the sale of a workers’ camp means.

Reports indicate that bed n’ breakfast Chalice bought was snatched up for $1.6M, and Chalice will now sell it for $1.8M – a relatively paltry gain given what property prices have done wholemeal through COVID.

That extra $200,000 – considering the last half-decade of inflation – doesn’t count for much, either.

CHN last traded at $1.16.