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- Forecast for an additional 1.3 billion litres of throughput to 2050
- Petrol and diesel demand tipped to remain higher for longer
- Base case includes an additional 300 million litres of petrol and diesel
- Near-term jet fuel outlook lower
Channel Infrastructure (ASX:CHI), New Zealand’s largest fuel import terminal business, has released Envisory’s long-term outlook for fuel throughput at Marsden Point which forecasts an additional 1.3 billion litres of throughput to 2050 compared with its October 2024 forecast.
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Envisory’s updated outlook anticipates petrol and diesel demand remaining higher for longer as weaker economic conditions have slowed vehicle replacement and the pace of electric vehicle sales will take time to change the wider fleet.
Diesel demand is expected to grow as the economy recovers, with slower replacement of commercial vehicles also extending demand.
The base case includes an additional approximately 300 million litres of petrol and diesel throughput in 2050 compared to their October 2024 forecast.
Envisory also expects Channel’s share of national petrol and diesel demand to grow, supported by Auckland’s faster population growth and the efficiency of Channel’s infrastructure for fuel delivery at scale.
Consistent with Channel’s expectations, Envisory has lowered its near-term jet fuel outlook reflecting revised passenger forecasts and the impact of high fuel prices in 2026.
The majority of the Auckland Airport passenger forecast revision relates to domestic and short-haul travel, so it does not translate into an equivalent reduction in jet fuel demand, with long-haul flights consuming significantly more jet fuel.
Envisory continues to expect long-haul travel growth to support demand over time, with its longer-term jet fuel outlook broadly unchanged.
“Envisory’s outlook for total fuel throughput to 2050 is 1.3 billion litres higher than its previous forecast, and of particular note is that diesel demand is predicted to remain higher over a longer timeframe,” Channel chief executive, Rob Buchanan, said.
“The changing geopolitical environment and diesel’s vital role in New Zealand’s economy, particularly in the primary and export sectors, highlight the importance of the government’s steps this year to establish a nine-day strategic diesel reserve, with tanks available until the storage contract ends in December 2027.
“Channel estimates the cost of this economic insurance, including the estimated cost of holding the diesel, is equivalent to around 1.0 cent per litre1 for the full nine days of reserve cover secured for New Zealand.”
Mr Buchanan said the outlook for fuel demand and its importance to economic growth for exporting nations, such as New Zealand, underscores the development of national fuel security plans as are being undertaken by many countries, including here in New Zealand and in Australia, following the impact of events overseas.
New Zealand’s minimum stockholding obligation for diesel is currently set at 21 days and is due to increase to 28 days in July 2028 with the country’s jet fuel minimum stockholding obligation set at 24 days. The Australian government has announced plans to lift Australia’s in-country stocks to 50 days for both diesel.
CHI was steady at $2.80 with a Mkt cap of $1.164B prior to market opening.
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