Forget inflation, that’s yesterday’s battle. Today, Australia’s real problem is much darker – the economy is quietly stalling, and the RBA knows it.
Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.
Everyone’s been obsessed with prices being “higher for longer” headlines, but inflation isn’t what’s driving the RBA anymore; it’s fear. Fear that Australia’s growth engine is grinding to a halt right under their nose.
The warning lights are flashing everywhere. The ANZ-Indeed Job Ads Index just plunged another 3.3% in September, now at its lowest since early 2024.
That’s three straight months of job postings gone. Businesses aren’t hiring, they’re freezing, waiting and watching. The jobs engine that kept this economy afloat through the inflation storm is now spluttering.
Consumers have already checked out, too. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index crashed 3.5% to 92.1, the weakest in six months. Optimism is evaporating, and spending is drying up, and when households stop spending, the RBA stops sleeping.
The construction sector, one of Australia’s biggest employers and growth drivers, is also buckling. Labour shortages remain unsolved, and the pipeline of new projects is drying up. Construction firms are collapsing under cost pressures, while developers walk away as lending tightens. Business investment is stagnant, and the cranes that once filled our skylines are vanishing, taking confidence with them.
So, when the RBA meets in November, don’t expect fireworks. They’ll wait, as they always do, for another round of data. But by December, they’ll have no choice; the pressure will be too great. A rate cut isn’t a possibility anymore; it’s inevitable.
But here’s the twist everyone is missing. This won’t be a victory lap on inflation; it’ll be a rescue mission in a desperate attempt to stop the economy from slipping into paralysis.
Because once hiring slows and confidence collapses, it’s game over for growth. Without jobs, spending dies, and without spending, businesses fold. That’s how a slowdown becomes a spiral, and that’s exactly what the RBA is trying to stop.
So don’t let the talking heads fool you. This isn’t about inflation anymore; it’s about survival. When that December cut finally comes, don’t mistake it for a Christmas gift; it’ll be a warning that Australia’s economic heartbeat is fading.
What’s next for the Australian stock market?
Despite the steady stream of gloomy headlines in recent weeks, from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and weak global manufacturing data, the All-Ordinaries Index has quietly pushed higher.
On Monday, the Index reached a new all-time high, briefly surpassing its previous peak before easing slightly to close on Thursday to be just in the red.
Even with that pullback, the index remains near record levels, showing resilience rather than the weakness many expected. It’s a reminder that markets often climb a wall of worry, and right now, the All Ords is doing exactly that.
From here, it’s quite possible we’ll see some sideways consolidation through the rest of October before the next leg higher. That would be an encouraging outcome, given October’s reputation as one of the more volatile months.
The next resistance sits around 9,600, with 9,000 holding firm as a key support zone. As long as the index remains above that level, the broader uptrend stays intact.
What’s truly driving this rally is Materials. The big miners have roared back to life, lifting smaller resource players. With commodity prices finally catching up, the sector looks poised to outperform well into next year. The Materials Index itself hit a new record high this week, which could be the start of a much larger move.
Now is the time to dig deeper and look for materials stocks showing early signs of strength because the heat is well and truly on this sector right now.
For now, good luck and good trading.
Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and an international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.
Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on Australia’s largest stock forum and be part of the conversations that move the markets.
Disclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347), the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.
The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.