Koala Company (ASX:KOA) ripped out a fairly strong first week on the Australian market after floating on Tuesday, March 31, following an upswing that day with two more bumper jumps to settle ~$4/share into the Easter weekend.
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It’s quite a nice run for the furniture company-come-exciteable online retailer, though its green rush in Week 14 has still left HotCopper editor Isaac McIntyre, and his HotCopper Wire podcast co-host Jonathon Davidson, “hesitating” as they look to the past to figure out Koala’s future on the Aussie bourse.
McIntyre was quick to point out on Episode #47 that there’s a “tried and true Guzman Y Gomez story to look at” for where things may lead.
That, he spoke about, is the fact that Guzman Y Gomez (ASX:GYG) exploded out the gates as the biggest IPO of the CY24 calendar run, driven mainly by retail hype and general stock buying, before sliding in the ensuing two years.
Now, in CY26, Guzman has become one of the most shorted stocks on the entire Australian market, rivalled only by Domino’s (ASX:DMP) at the top; Telix Pharma (ASX:TLX) and Polynovo (ASX:PLV) are on the podium.
“The Mexican takeaway joint burst out the gates and was wrapped up in all this retail buying hype, but has since become one of the most shorted ASX stocks and is down -3% since listing,” McIntyre warned on the Wire.
I could very easily be wrong about where Koala is headed, and maybe its revenues will prove me wrong eventually,” he added, conceding Koala headed into its float up for the first half of FY26 and had already recorded $165.1 million in revenues through that overall period, with $10.7M operating profits.
Davidson agreed, though, adding he thought that “Koala’s bold decision to list at possibly the worst time in recent history to do so has worked for it due to luck.”
And perhaps more worrying for Koala, HotCopper‘s senior reporter suggested, is that there’s already a liquidity problem brewing just days into its listed life.
It’s a good debut, with a caveat,” Davidson said. “Koala is right now at around $3.95; it listed at $3.40 earlier this week, so it’s already up +16%, but here’s the thing about it: It’s illiquid as all hell, Isaac. Nobody is trading this thing, and due to that low base effect, that’s why it shot up +11% on its first day.”
JD suggested the $75K worth of shares traded on Thursday could have been “one wealthy gambler who had scotch for breakfast, desperate to feel something.”
“I don’t think we can say anything about Koala conclusively except for this: Right now, it is an entirely unscientific but still appropriately vibes-based indicator of where market sentiment lies, and that’s cautious optimism,” he continued.
“I think the low liquidity volumes reflect a general inclination to not get involved in risk assets right now until we get at least one stable trading week; equity volumes over in Europe and elsewhere were suppressed last week, and while America will probably remain exceptional, we’re seeing it thin out there, too.
“Koala is so far demonstrating an early pattern to Guzman: The market is liking it. At least, the very, very small number of people trading, which I think does reflect a downside to Koala listing right in a war, let alone a tariff regime, hoping to become an international online furniture retailer, something they’ve only gone into recently, after having long been the mattress in a box company.
“At the same time, construction materials – lumber – remain volatile both in terms of price and supply, as all kinds of industrial chemicals like caustic soda we mentioned earlier now being caught up in Hormuz headaches, think dyes and sterilisers and treatments for various types of cloth; let alone the price of marine and jet fuel.”
The pair went on to agree that Koala could well be a canary in a coal mine for overall Australian sentiments, and that it’s well worth watching closely as its days on the bourse stretch out to weeks, months, and even years.
“I actually quite like Koala as a brand, my wife and I have had a mattress from them for a while, but I like GYG as takeaway as well, and I don’t think that I ever really wanted to invest in that when it floated,” McIntyre added.
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