Australian shares are set for a stronger start on Tuesday after Wall Street staged a sharp recovery overnight, clawing back some of last week’s losses as falling oil prices helped restore confidence.

The S&P 500 recorded its strongest session since April, with technology stocks and smaller companies joining the rebound.

However, the recovery comes against a backdrop of continuing uncertainty around AI spending, geopolitical developments and the direction of interest rates.

Locally, investors will be weighing the positive offshore lead against a mixed start to the week on the ASX, with ANZ’s latest results and fresh company updates also in focus.

Wall Street bounces back: The S&P 500 climbed 2.3% to 7,549.94, the Dow Jones added 2.2% to 52,389.75 and the Nasdaq rose 2.7% to 25,253.14. The Russell 2000 outperformed, gaining 3.1%, suggesting the recovery extended beyond the largest US technology companies.

AI stocks remain in focus: The rebound followed last week’s sell-off over concerns that political developments in the US could slow the construction of AI data centres. Nvidia bucked the broader rally, falling 4.3%, highlighting that investors remain selective about the technology trade.

Oil provides some relief: Brent crude fell almost 6% as geopolitical concerns surrounding Iran eased, helping lift broader market sentiment. Lower oil prices could also take some pressure off inflation expectations.

A stronger local open: ASX 200 futures were pointing to a gain of around 84 points, or 0.9%, following the overnight rally.

ANZ (ASX: ANZ) is in focus after reporting a full-year cash profit of $7.591 billion and statutory profit of $7.270 billion for FY26. The cash result was slightly ahead of analyst expectations, with lower expenses and stable margins among the positives.

However, ANZ shares fell alongside the broader banking sector on Monday as investors digested the results.

Virgin Australia (ASX: VGN) released a November trading update ahead of its participation in a UBS investor conference. The airline reaffirmed its first-half FY27 underlying EBIT outlook as broadly in line with the previous corresponding period. It also highlighted ongoing fleet investment, with FY27 capital expenditure expected to be between $900 million and $1 billion.

The two updates put banking profitability and airline operating conditions on the local radar as the reporting and AGM season continues.

• Australia: NAB Business Confidence and Business Conditions for October. The previous confidence reading was -13, while business conditions stood at -1. The latest survey will provide an updated look at how businesses are responding to higher interest rates, cost pressures and global uncertainty.

• United States: October Consumer Price Index (CPI), due at 8.30am Eastern time (9.30pm AWST). Investors will be looking for signs of whether inflation is easing and what that could mean for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

• ASX: AGM season continues, with Aspen Group (APZ), Astron (ATR), DGL Group (DGL), Iceni Gold (ICL), AnteoTech (ADO) and several investment funds scheduled to meet shareholders.

Worley (ASX: WOR) has won the Bethune potash mine compaction and power project in Canada;

Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX: VUL) has mobilised a second drill rig mobilised at Lionheart;

Terra Metals (ASX: TM1) has hit best PGM intercepts to date at Southwest discovery;

Nexus Minerals (ASX: NXM) has intersected mineralisation in Wallbrook gold project exploration; and

Mount Hope Mining (ASX: MHM) has unveiled high-grade gold at Mt Solitary.

Cryptocurrencies have come under renewed pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling to their lowest levels in more than two months as regulatory uncertainty and security concerns weigh on sentiment.

Bitcoin dropped to around US$73,700 during Sunday’s trading before recovering towards US$74,700, while Ethereum touched approximately US$2,223.

The selling follows concerns that a Democratic-controlled US Congress could pursue tougher regulation of the crypto industry. Confidence has also been shaken by a reported US$6 billion security incident involving Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.

The weakness in digital assets stands in contrast to Monday’s recovery across traditional equity markets, suggesting investors are not yet showing the same appetite for risk across all asset classes.

For background on the changing financial system, HotCopper’s Let’s Get Smart series explores the subject in Part one and Part two, with Part three examining the companies shaping the change due next week.

That’s HotCopper’s Market Open, I’m Colin Sandell-Hay – happy trading.

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