Market Open:  Wall Street rebounds, but inflation remains in focus

ASX 200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, down around 0.1%, despite the recovery offshore. The local market closed 0.17% higher on Monday at 8,809.9 points, with Wednesday’s Australian inflation data now the key event to watch.

Wall Street rebounded overnight, with all three major US indices finishing higher after Friday’s losses.

The S&P 500 rose 0.70%, the Nasdaq gained 0.82% and the Dow added 0.28%, supported by technology shares. The recovery offers some support for Australian investors, but oil prices remain elevated and inflation concerns are still in the mix.

Oil, bond yields and inflation

Oil prices eased overnight as markets assessed the prospect of reduced tensions in the Middle East, but Brent crude remains around US$115 a barrel. That is some relief after recent gains, although prices remain high enough to keep inflation concerns alive.

Australian investors will be watching Wednesday’s September-quarter CPI figures for clues on the interest-rate outlook.

Commonwealth Bank economists expect headline inflation of 3.9% annually and trimmed mean inflation of 3.6%. A stronger-than-expected result could add pressure to the RBA’s decision next week.

The gap between banks and miners

Monday’s market movements showed why it pays to look beyond the daily headlines. Materials rose 1.71%, leading the ASX sectors, while financials slipped 0.52%.

Over the past 20 trading sessions, however, materials have fallen 8.37%, while financials have gained 5.39%. One strong session has yet to reverse the broader weakness in resources, leaving investors watching whether miners can build on Monday’s gains or banks continue to show greater resilience.

AI spending faces an earnings test

Technology shares helped lift Wall Street overnight, with investors looking ahead to results from major US technology companies later this week.

The focus is whether heavy spending on AI infrastructure, chips and data centres can translate into earnings growth. Results and company outlooks could help determine whether recent volatility is a temporary pullback or a broader reassessment of technology valuations.

• Tuesday: CSL’s annual general meeting, with investors watching for updates on leadership and the company’s outlook.

• Wednesday: Australian September-quarter CPI, due at 8:30am AWST — after the ASX opens.

• Thursday: US Federal Reserve decision, with markets watching for signals on the path of interest rates.

• Tuesday, 3 November: Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision.

Channel Infrastructure NZ (ASX:CHI) has forecast a significant fuel throughput increase at Marsden Point in NZ;

Argosy Minerals (ASX: AGY) has released a Rincon JORC mineral resource and exploration target upgrade;

Hamelin Gold (ASX: HMG) has made high-grade hits to expand Day Dawn Gold lodes;

Zenith Minerals (ASX: ZNC) has received assays confirming widespread gold mineralisation at Dulcie Central; and

Auravelle Metals (ASX: AUV) has confirmed a gold trend and extended Nuckulla Hill.

Now – in forex, the Oz dollar is buying US$0.701,

Looking at commodities, all in the greenback,

Iron Ore was down 0.06% to $90.78 in Singapore today,

Brent Crude was down 1.24% to $115.273 per barrel,

Gold was selling at $4017.04,

US natgas futures were down 1.09% to $2.6113per gigajoule.

That’s HotCopper’s Market Open, I’m Colin Sandell-Hay – happy trading.

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