This week on Money and Investing, Mitch Olarenshaw and I break down the four Stock Market Cycles, how investor behaviour shifts in each phase, and how to make decisions based on facts instead of emotion.
1. Understand the Boom Phase
A boom is marked by rising prices, strong confidence, and positive economic conditions. Investors often feel optimistic, but this can lead to overconfidence and late entry into the market. The key is recognising that strong past performance does not remove risk. Acting early with a plan is more effective than chasing trends.
2. Recognise Market Corrections
Corrections are normal and typically involve a 10% or more decline from recent highs. They are often driven by external factors such as interest rates, inflation, or global events. While they can feel uncomfortable, they also create opportunities when price drops but underlying value remains unchanged.
3. Prepare for Recession Conditions
A recession or bear market involves a sustained decline of 20% or more. Sentiment turns negative, and many investors exit positions due to fear. However, these periods often present strong long-term buying opportunities. Staying disciplined and avoiding emotional decisions is critical during this phase.
4. Approach the Recovery with Structure
Recovery begins when markets stabilise and gradually move higher. Investors often hesitate, unsure if the trend will continue. Instead of waiting for certainty, a structured approach such as scaling into positions over time can help manage risk while taking advantage of improving conditions.
5. Separate Price from Value
A key principle across all Stock Market Cycles is that price and value are different. A lower price does not always mean lower quality. Understanding this helps investors avoid panic selling and recognise opportunities when markets pull back.
6. Avoid Emotion-Driven Decisions
Many investors make decisions based on fear or excitement, often influenced by media noise. This leads to poor outcomes. A clear plan, supported by data and analysis, allows for more consistent and rational decision-making.
7. Use Tools to Guide Decisions
Technical tools such as on-balance volume and volatility indicators can help identify buying pressure and market stability. These tools provide signals that reduce reliance on guesswork and emotional reactions.
8. Build a Clear Trading Plan
A defined plan removes subjectivity. Set clear entry points, manage risk, and adjust positions based on market conditions. Education, risk management, and self-awareness are key components of a strong strategy.
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