Up to 3.5 Mt of aluminium output at risk globally due to Middle East crisis

• Strait of Hormuz disruptions now threatening critical metals production, with direct attacks on smelters forcing emergency measures.
• Up to 18% of global exports outside China are now at risk.
• Automotive, construction and packaging are all particularly exposed.

The Middle East conflict is triggering a critical supply crisis in the global aluminium market, with disruptions potentially removing three to 3.5 million tonnes of output in CY26, according to a report by global research firm Wood Mackenzie.

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Direct attacks on smelters have forced several emergency measures in the early stages of the crisis, instantly putting as much as 6.8Mt of aluminium production (around 18% of the global exports outside China) at risk, with the majority of Middle Eastern smelters concentrated along the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Wood Mackenzie, around 80 to 85% of this production is destined for export markets, amplifying the global impact of any sustained disruption.

“The Strait of Hormuz is effectively a chokepoint for the global aluminium market. Disruptions here could cut off up to 60% of alumina supply to Middle Eastern smelters, rapidly deepening the market deficit,” said Charvi Trivedi, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, in a report this week.

“The longer the conflict persists, the more difficult it becomes for producers to sustain operations. Risks increasingly skew toward supply losses and higher prices.”

Facilities reported to be impacted included Alba in Bahrain, which had to shut down some 19% of its capacity due to critical alumina shortages. Following the attack on the smelter on 28 March, the facility sustained significant damage and is expected to operate at an estimated utilisation of 30%.

Elsewhere, Qatalum in Qatar is operating at around 60% capacity.

In the meantime, Ma’aden in Saudi Arabia is supplying emergency alumina to neighbouring smelters in a bid to keep them chugging along.

Wood Mackenzie said with the majority of Middle Eastern aluminium production exported to key markets including Japan, South Korea, Turkey, and Mexico, disruptions pose significant risks to global supply chains.

“What this disruption highlights are how concentrated and fragile aluminium supply chains have become,” said principal analyst Uday Patel. “With so much production and export infrastructure tied to a single trade route, even short-term disruptions can have outsized and immediate global consequences.”

Mr Patel said sectors such as automotive, construction and packaging are particularly exposed, as reduced availability of primary aluminium tightens input markets, increases costs, and raises the risk of downstream disruption.

WoodMac expects aluminium prices to rise to around US$3,500 per tonne in CY26, with outcomes highly sensitive to the duration and severity of the conflict.

The Middle East issue is further impacted with China still constrained by a 45 Mt production cap, while incremental supply from Indonesia, India, and Russia can only partially offset losses – leaving the market in huge deficit.

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