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Here’s an uncomfortable question: are markets still rewarding good investing, or simply rewarding whoever can influence the crowd first? Over the past few years, we’ve watched stocks, commodities and cryptocurrencies move on political statements, viral social media posts and unexpected geopolitical events that had little to do with company fundamentals. That’s forcing investors to rethink one of the oldest assumptions in finance: that prices always reflect value.
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Take Donald Trump, for example. His latest financial disclosure revealed more than US$1.4 billion in income from his family’s cryptocurrency ventures during 2025, making digital assets his largest reported source of income. At the same time, his administration has adopted a far more crypto-friendly stance than previous governments. Whether the two are connected isn’t the point. The reality is that when influential figures have significant financial exposure to an asset class and the ability to shape policy and investor sentiment, markets become far more difficult for ordinary investors to navigate.
The same questions are being asked in commodity markets. Earlier this year, U.S. authorities began investigating more than US$2.6 billion worth of unusually timed oil trades placed shortly before major announcements relating to Iran and the Middle East. Those announcements sent oil prices sharply lower, leaving many wondering whether some participants knew more than the rest of the market.
Then there’s social media. A single post from Elon Musk has repeatedly moved cryptocurrencies, AI stocks and even his own companies within minutes. Algorithms now react faster than humans can read the headline, amplifying moves long before most retail investors have had time to think.
This isn’t a conspiracy theory; it’s simply the reality of modern financial markets. Politics, billionaires, central banks and algorithms all influence markets. The game has become faster, noisier and, at times, less connected to underlying business fundamentals. So how do individual investors compete? Not by trying to predict the next tweet or political announcement, instead, they need to focus on these three things.
First, follow price before opinion: If the market isn’t behaving the way the fundamentals suggest it should, respect the price action. Markets can remain irrational far longer than most investors expect.
Second, wait for confirmation: Chasing the first move after a headline is often when emotions are highest, and risk is greatest. Patience frequently delivers a better entry and a clearer picture.
Third, manage risk relentlessly: You can’t control the next geopolitical event, a surprise policy announcement, or a viral social media post. You can, however, control your position size, your stop-loss and whether you choose to participate at all.
The biggest edge investors have today isn’t having more information, given that everyone receives breaking news within seconds. It’s having the discipline to ignore the noise until the odds are genuinely in your favour.
Good luck and good trading.
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Dale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and an international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au.
The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.
