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Australia currently has ~30 days of diesel, nearly 40 days of petrol, and 30 days of jet fuel held in reserve, and all fuel shipments are secured through to May, meaning, at least for the time being, we’re sitting at pre-conflict levels.
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But – it would only take three weeks for us to head into fuel rationing, with Federal government modelling recently run in the opening days of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in the Middle East suggesting we’d have to pull the rationing trigger once the national stockpile falls to a ten-day supply.
The government never actually came out and said that was the specific threshold for restrictions, but research done by Clare Armstrong and Isobel Roe over the ABC looks pretty dang bang on regarding those timelines. (They also said, for the time being, the gov’t “is not considering rationing” yet.)
As for exact timelines, the report suggests a 20% reduction in imports coming through in April would have seen the stockpile exhausted by September.
In CY25 just gone, more than 80% of refined fuel consumed in Oz was imported, mostly from Asia. Some 25% came from South Korea, 13% from Malaysia, 8% each India and Taiwan, and 7% China. A whole lot of that is refined using crude oil from the Middle East, which is where the loggerheads begin.
So, to answer the double-barrelled questions posed in my HotCopper headline: Should things get any worse over in Iran and the Middle East, we’d be looking at a belt-tightening around the ninth month of the calendar year.
More disastrous timelines included a ~40% drop in April, which would then have seen the diesel reserve depleted by early June, but the Federal government did also suggest things could have been stretched out another week (into mid-June or so) if “demand measures” were imposed to slow consumption.
Thankfully, Albo and his government have secured fuel imports for the country through to the beginning of May, meaning that battle plan is now obsolete.
Instead, we’re now watching a four-step plan tabled by Labor to “keep Australia moving.” The first three stages largely relate to management and keeping the drip coming – and stopping price explosions at the bowser with moves like temporarily trimming the fuel excise – but the fourth gets a bit more hairy.
Level four is when Albo and his government have to go about “protecting critical services,” and that’s when we’ll see restrictions creep into daily life.
The prime minister has at least said Australia is a “substantial” distance from moving to level three of the national fuel plan, which is to “take targeted action.” Level four would only be triggered if ongoing disruptions “require action” to ensure critical infrastructure and any fuel users can keep a steady supply.
(On that front, the critical users mentioned in the plan ranged from life-supporting services at hospitals, as well as utilities and emergency services.)
And everyone hopes it’ll never come to that, especially the prime minister. “I want to see a de-escalation. A de-escalation is in the global economy’s interests,” Mr Albanese said regarding the ongoing conflict.
Albo also declared he wants to see “more certainty” from U.S. President Donald Trump about the genuine objectives of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers also acknowledged that Australians were paying a “hefty price” for the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran. “From an economic point of view, the war in the Middle East could not end soon enough,” the Treasurer said recently. “We’ll provide relief where we can do that in a responsible way.”
Mr Chalmers also said the national cabinet may consider GST relief by May.
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