Let’s just get to the point: Uranium prices have fallen off the ‘everything rally’ wagon in the last few days, largely because major Kazakh-based uranium miner Kazatomprom has moved to boost uranium output by up to 9% this year.
Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.
This feels a lot like a few years ago when the uranium price briefly went wild, then not-so-wild, after forecast shortages from Kazatomprom, due to mine issues, were countered by news from Canadian global major Cameco that it would boost production. (Fun fact: That was nearly two years ago to this very day.)
There’s a rule in uranium trading: You’ve gotta be quick. That remains the case.
Spare a thought for shareholders in the likes of Peninsula Energy (ASX:PEN), who, after a long wait, saw the price climb from 40cps last year, up to 80cps, then out of nowhere, very quickly ascending to 90cps, 95cps, then over $1.00/sh – before coming back down to <80cps intraday Wednesday. (Though, to be fair, it looks like 80cps is where the market has agreed the price should be.)
Equally-troubled Boss Energy (ASX:BOE), meanwhile, was worth a little over $2/share at the end of January, but has since taken a blow down to $1.78/share, at time of writing. And then Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) closed out January trading at $14.14/sh and now sits lower at $13.50/sh, at the time of writing.
Perhaps not dramatic declines, but the situation is less tame in futures markets.
Uranium is down -5% in the last 24 hours, eating into what had been monthly gains of over +12%. Compare that to +15% for silver, and nearly +14% for gold – that’s even after we saw those metals plummet, what, some… forty-eight hours ago.
The big thing to note here, you can probably see for yourself – these screenshots were taken at the same time, and right now, uranium’s not on the way back up.
If Kazatomprom have come out with a plan to boost production by +9% – and remember, nuclear plants don’t really need that much uranium to operate; it’s refiners who take on more monetary risk – then it’s hard to see how a narrative momentum around shortages can take hold in the zeitgeist.
Before the Kazatomprom announcement midway through Week 6, a lot of people had been banking on AI data centre power demand being a use case for uranium (even though the reactors take decades to build).
As ever, it’s uranium: You gotta be quick.
Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on HotCopper, Australia’s largest stock forum, and be part of the conversations that move the markets.
The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.