Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) has seen its shares return to $16/sh, a level they haven’t hit since the Trump-Albanese critical minerals and rare earths furore from last year, on the back of once-again-rejuvenated interest in rare earths broadly (read: geopolitical volatility) and a well-received quarterly on Wednesday.
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The jump has been enough to bring Lynas – Australia’s only meaningful rare earths producer (and one worth its salt) – to a one-year return of +130% and a market cap of $16 billion (1B shares on issue).
Looking at public data via Market Index, seven brokers rate it a Buy; two for Sell, and a single broker rates the stock a Hold, which, really, means Sell.
(The company’s 1Y returns were a somewhat-more-modest +110% only last week.)
It’s also evidence of a market not too bothered by the fact that Lynas Rare Earth’s CEO also walked out the door just last week, out of the blue, no less, leaving the company for now a ship without a captain. Lucky, then, we’re on the cusp of a new trade war, although the market didn’t balk at Amanda Lacaze’s exit; the share price ended up flattish green on the day of that announcement.
All of this is also to question the conviction of short sellers covering Lynas, according to public data that lags by a week, as at January 15, just over 7% of all the company’s shares on issue were covered by short sellers.
(Worth noting, it looks like Amanda’s exit gave short sellers more to get excited over than what ordinary shareholders perceived at the time.)
As for the ins and outs of the quarter, no surprises: neodymium production was in line with guidance from November; Q2 FY26 gross revenue up to $202M vs $141M YoY; CAPEX down to $45M vs $140M YoY, and an average selling price of $85/kg.
Which really goes to underscore that a fresh wave of excitement around utopian outcomes for Australian rare earths companies (read: government-imposed price floors a la Washington and MP Materials) is what’s pushing Lynas up on Wednesday, and maybe not fundamentals.
One to keep an eye on.
LYC last traded at $16.06/sh today.
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