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ASX today – Australian traders are now starting to price in at least three “hike” decisions from the Reserve Bank in CY26, starting with tomorrow’s March meeting, as we witness the very worst oil disruption in market history.
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The ASX – already down as much as -6% since the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran – is looking at another sombre drop, down -0.8% in futures.
Most recently, the U.S. increased its Kharg Island bombing runs. Kharg Island is Iran’s oil export hub, and its being under attack has now pushed Brent crude to a few bucks over $100 a barrel into the week.
The Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed, too. We’re already feeling it Down Under, where petrol pump prices are $2.30/litre… and climbing.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers recently warned that headline inflation could very well break into the “mid to high fours” on the Middle East conflict. That would unquestionably force the RBA’s hand when it comes to multiple hikes.
That will be answered tomorrow. Today, there’s company news to come.
ASX stocks to watch
Big one we’ve been watching: China appears to be making a move on the Jimblebar fine iron ore ban it’s been wielding against BHP (ASX:BHP), with Reuters today suggesting the ban will end this week. The state-run iron ore buyer reportedly told domestic steel mills they could take deliveries through Week 12.
Elsewhere, ARN Media (ASX:A1N) is now facing the threat of a wrongful termination lawsuit from Jackie “O” Henderson after her spat with Kyle Sandilands.
Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) has heeded calls from fund managers, and will now cull just 80 funds from its superannuation wrap platform. The financial blue-chip had been planning to dump nearly 250 by April.
Koala has also confirmed it will indeed be joining the Australian bourse this month, with a listing scheduled for March 31. The online furniture seller is forecasting $330M in sales in FY26, and wants to raise $68 million.
49Metals was meant to float today, too, but it’s been delayed.
Buck and ore
So – in forex, the Oz dollar is buying US 69.9c.
Looking at commodities, all in the greenback,
Iron Ore is +0.1% stronger, selling at $107.95 a tonne in Singapore today,
Brent Crude is up +2.7%, at $103.14/Bbl,
Gold is selling at $5,033/ounce,
US natgas futures are down -3%, to $3.13 per gigajoule.
That’s HotCopper’s Market Open, I’m Isaac McIntyre – good luck today.
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