It’s been a pretty good year for the ASX200 so far, helped greatly by the ‘commodity supercycle’ narrative – which isn’t really a narrative when you look at the price of gold, copper, lithium, and rare earths – and which, of course, isn’t surprising for a bourse as heavily exposed to mining as we are.
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So the question then becomes: What are analysts predicting the ASX200 to be at when we hit December 31, CY26? I’ll spare you the frustration of reading this whole article: In truth, there aren’t many out there.
Wallet Investor, for its part, has an AI-powered ‘technical analysis’ tool, and according to that, the XJO will end the year out between 9,000pts and 9,200pts.
Seeing as we’re over 9,000pts on Thursday – closing back in on that record high from October last year (or when CBA reported the other week), that feels like a fairly safe bet, if not a little uninspiring.
Of course, anyone can say the ASX200 will hit 10,000pts by December, but that would be a dangerous call, assuming you believe your reputation is tied to a call nobody will remember a week later. (Anybody who’s actually keeping track of what one predicts, to call them out on it later, probably has something going on at home.)
Trump’s still in charge of America, and the gold price reflects what is a global experience of sheer uncertainty. Thus, the lack of analyst calls for an ASX200 EOY target.
What we do have, though, are careful statements.
Analysts at T. Rowe Price, for instance, expect “stable to slightly higher” equity returns in 2026, but see more chance of downside than upside, given geopolitical uncertainty.
Commonwealth Bank analysts, at least in their free-to-access public-facing materials on their website, did not offer an EOY target for the ASX200, merely noting it’s “always tricky” to predict. No kidding.
“The outlook for ASX 200 returns in 2026 is somewhat constrained by the risk of RBA rate hikes, as well as still-elevated valuations, with the index trading on a forward P/E of 18.2x – ~1 standard deviation above its five-year average,” Wilsons Advisory wrote earlier this year.
“That said, the [Australian] market now offers a relatively supportive earnings growth backdrop, with consensus pointing to 10% EPS growth for the calendar year, which would represent the strongest rate of earnings growth in four years.”
We’ve also got the question of how many times the RBA will hike this year, what happens with AI-software-tech trade momentum, and, of course, the normal level of unpredictability inherent in markets.
Just for the hell of it, though, I reckon we’ll hit 9,450pts, based on vibes.
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