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It’s not often you hear the speculative-mining-stock-packed ASX described as a ‘safe-haven’ – but at least one VanEck analyst sees it as exactly that.
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Australia’s relatively cheap valuations compared to those on the S&P500; the fact we’re a country of dividend assets and most importantly that we’re probably not going to suffer from too many U.S. tariff shocks are all coming together as a basket of hope for international investors looking to reallocate capital out of Wall Street.
So far – and this is a bit of a wishy-washy statement given how much smaller the ASX is compared to Wall Street in terms of total listings; especially after COVID-19 – the ASX is actually outperforming Wall Street YTD.
After smashing record high after record high all last year largely due to AI-driven Mag 7 outperformance, it’s perhaps not surprising to see a pullback in the U.S.
Without doubt, however, losses have been magnified by Trump’s tariff regime.
(That’s all beside the point though, right now.)
And, right now, it looks like the U.S. has a little more to worry about.
As of 1pm Sydney time on Friday, gold has hit a new all-time record high as investors appear to be ditching the U.S. dollar and moving into gold.
And compare that to the one-month gold price chart:
For now, U.S. outflows coming to Australia (that aren’t going into gold) would probably be good news for Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), the ASX’s largest constituent, as well as BHP Group (ASX:BHP) – as long as iron ore prices hold up in the latter example.
(It’s already thought by some that outflows from the Chinese stock markets into Australia were one of the key reasons that kept CBA running all through 2024, despite myriad analysts rating the stock a sell.)
That isn’t a given. Iron ore prices hit US$90/tn earlier this week as the reality of a new U.S.-China Trade War sunk in; it’s a debated point by many analysts whether iron ore prices of ~US$100/tn in Singapore are fundamentally supported.
So it goes without saying much could change, and as I wrote earlier this week, we’re far more closely linked to China than the U.S. economically. You only need to look at our currency to see proof of that.
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Our currency, of course, also offers an attractive prospect to those still buying in U.S. dollars – put simply, high net worth investors can get more bang for their buck buying shares in AUD than they could at home.
Assuming, of course, some new calamity doesn’t come out of China.
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