Greetings and welcome to HotCopper’s The ASX Today for Thursday of Week 10, I’m Jon Davidson, and they say there’s a three-day rule around black swan events, which appears to be true today, though we’re still on shaky ground.
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The XJO trended downwards for most of the day but an early arvo bump kept it from going into the negative; at the time of writing, I wouldn’t be surprised if we close flat, but it’s a little hard to tell. While gold remains below US$5,200/oz USD, the price of Brent added a dollar intraday to reflect $83.80 a barrel around 2pm Sydney time, and it’s probable non-linear pain will make itself felt yet.
Perhaps the biggest signal came from South Korea’s KOSP index, which gained +12% today, erasing the -12% loss it made yesterday – suggesting that investors involved in South Korea’s equity market, at least, think the worst is over. That could or could not be the case; it’s a little hard to tell.
But it definitely looks like on Thursday, the initial shock period of a war in Iran has worn off, at least. At the time of writing, the XJO in the low-to-mid 8,900pts range. Still a while off last week’s new record high of 9,200pts.
Household spending data came out today, and that didn’t move markets one way or another, but we did learn Aussies appear to be putting off big-ticket purchases like cars, though we know from last month’s earnings season they’re still happy to buy electronics. A lipstick effect in a FIFO and public sector worker-filled economy, perhaps.
Looking at sectors, IT was well in the lead following cues on Wall Street, but year to date, Australia’s tech index, the XTX, is still down over -17% – suggesting that concerns around the viability of technology broadly, including AI cannibalisation concerns, remains very much the quo to Week 10.
Wall Street’s sentiment gauge still sits in ‘fear’ territory, and U.S. futures flattish red. But one of Australia’s key bull ETFs, the Betashares GEAR instrument, flashed green Thursday – suggesting some investors believe the recovery starts now.
But Trump’s best work is often done on Weekends. Don’t hold your breath.
Looking around the traps on Thursday, Zip Co saw some upside, up nearly +9% in mid-arvo trades as recent pain converts into a buying opportunity for some.
Magellan continues to climb, likewise up 9% as investors still digest the big Barrenjoey merger, though UBS analysts see the deal as a “dud,” long-suffering shareholders would rather hear no evil. Finally, Westgold down over -4% mid-arvo as investors digest a gold price dip, and probably, cheaper opportunities.
That’s the ASX Today for Thursday, I’m Jon Davidson, and you won’t see me until Monday sometime – I’m off south to the Stirling Ranges tomorrow, which means our editor Isaac McIntyre will handle HotCopper Highlights.
Until then, stay safe, good luck, and remember to smell the roses (unless you’re allergic).
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