The ASX Today: Silver back to acting like crypto & gold keeps climbing; RBA call (yawn); Japanese bond yield risk

Good afternoon and welcome to The ASX Today for Tuesday of Week 6, I’m Jon Davidson. Surprising nobody, silver and gold have bounced back today after that historic slaughterhouse session for both precious metals bled over the weekend into Monday, and with a small European country’s worth of bagholders now roaming the world, that will be a reassuring thing for many.

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Is it a dead cat bounce? I think that question is far more relevant for silver than gold. Gold will keep climbing back, as it’s done for the last 2,000 years.

But silver remains tenuous – is it a new haven asset, or is it just a meme stock? It’s acting like a meme stock, and both gold and silver have been acting like crypto, too, which I wrote yesterday, is why nobody’s buying Bitcoin anymore.

After all, an ounce of gold or silver is cheaper than a bitcoin, and lately, they’ve been going up and down just as much, scratching the hypervolatility itch. Mix that in with a showstopping AI trade, a general falling off of cryptocurrency hype, and not much action from the pro-crypto Donald Trump White House over the last year, and it looks like we’re in another lengthy crypto winter.

So what about the show back home? A good day!

Note: We’re recording this before the RBA interest rate decision, which I do imagine will be a hike, and I suspect this could bring the bourse back down from its strong Tuesday start up over 1%. Whether or not the move is ‘priced in’ remains unknown, but if the RBA does hike and anyone’s surprised, they’ve not been paying attention. The best case outcome is a pause; there isn’t going to be a rate cut.

Outside of Australia, there are some more risks looming large. The USD’s long-term performance remains a little shaky on the outlook, and rising Japanese bond yields do suggest there could be a reckoning on the horizon if cheap Japanese yen is no longer available to fund institutional trades elsewhere. Gold’s continued rise doesn’t suggest certainty is suddenly here to stay, and geopolitics remains as whims-based as ever. But a green day’s a green day.

Around the traps: Newmont Gold (ASX:NEM) spiking upwards on Tuesday as the gold price recovery re-injects hope into the market; Dateline Resources (ASX:DTR) jumped on Tuesday as the Trump administration unveiled fresh plans for a critical minerals fund, keeping the dream alive there; the finance sector up nearly 1% ahead of and probably anticipating the RBA rate hike, but Credit Corp Group (ASX:CCP) fell below a $1B market cap as its latest quarterly saw a fifth of value scalped. 

That’s ASX Today for Tuesday, have a titillating evening. See you Wednesday.

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