The ASX Today: Viva refinery fire, looming May rate increase nullifying possible extension to US-Iran ceasefire

Hello, hello, and welcome to HotCopper‘s The ASX Today for Thursday, Week 16, I’m Isaac McIntyre. The Australian stock market has retreated nearly -0.4% after originally heading into morning trade in the green, with a fire at one of only two refineries Down Under and March jobs data stilting early hope.

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We had briefly touched ~9,017 points at Market Open; things are drifting into Thursday’s close a whole lot closer than 8,950 after the intraday dip.

Early gains faded after a third straight RBA rate hike materialised today. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser recently said there’s “a big income shock coming,” which won’t have been helped by the resilient jobs data shared today.

(For what it’s worth, this HotCopper writer has been suggesting we’ll see two or three more hikes in CY26, so batten down those hatches for the time being.)

Earlier, Aussies were greeted with the Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) refinery fire news as they tucked into their morning coffees: One of our two on-shore Oz refineries, this one in Corio, Geelong, suffered a huge fire overnight. Energy Minister Chris Bowen already confirmed “there will be an impact” on fuel supplies.

There have now been suggestions Australia is “almost certain” to head into third-stage fuel restrictions, though nothing formal has come out either way just yet.

Overall, not the best of days news-wise, and that left us failing to follow Wall Street’s booming lead (for once). Sectors were split; five up, six down.

Let’s get into that next. Energy – which meant Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO) again – dropped the most. Viva dodged the dip because of its Corio-led trading halt. The other oil refinery operator, Ampol (ASX:ALD), rose somewhat, mainly because it’s now facing very limited competition.

Elsewhere, Ora Banda Mining (ASX:OBA) avoided the larger Materials plunge after telling shareholders it’d recorded a quarterly gold production of 38.7Koz for the March quarter, up some 21%. The blue-chip gold miner generated $76.3 million in free cash flow and lifted cash reserves to $231.7 million.

Orica (ASX:ORI) headed the other way, despite getting its Kooragang Island facility back on track and locking down ammonia and ammonium nitrate supply. Traders seem more worried about Orica’s WA supply disruptions.

And, finally, new debutant Bison Resources (ASX:BSR) has popped over +125% to rank as the day’s top gainer. I wrote more about why earlier today.

That’s the ASX Today, and I’m Isaac McIntyre. See you in the morning.

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