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Like the wet season up north in Australia, we’ve learned this week that when it rains, it pours at the White House, too. Yesterday, I wrote here – and I’m guessing you’re well aware by this point – how a Wall Street Journal report citing “Trump aides” put a shock into markets intraday Tuesday (overnight U.S. time) as that unconfirmed report claimed the White House was planning an exit from Iran.
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And now, we’ve seen the same thing repeated again by Trump himself. According to Donny, this conflict’s got two to three weeks in it. The wider global market, clearly, wants to believe this. We can see that in the U.S. bond yield, and on oil and gold markets (as well as equities have been moving since). But compared to recent performance, it’d be accurate to say the optimism is cautious.
After all, Brent remains above US$100/bbl. And it appears Trump might have more important things on his mind, if his Truth Social is any proof.
(There was also the overnight tweet from Trump where he suggested countries like the U.K. could go and ‘take’ their own oil from Iran, which isn’t exactly de-escalatory language; it remains the case there’s a huge U.S. troop buildup in the MidEast, too.)
While it’s a risky gambit trusting anything the current U.S. President says, as I wrote yesterday, I reckon the market’s just so hungry for a good news story that we’re deciding to ‘believe now, ask questions later.’
After all, that mightn’t be too irrational (or at least not too hard to understand) when you consider the ASX had its worst month in six years in March.
But there’s yet another U.S. White House newsflow catalyst to look out for, before the impacts of this latest one even truly become clear.
White House Press Sec Karoline Leavitt posted right before lunchtime in Sydney on Wednesday that there will be yet another update on the Iran War “tomorrow night at 9PM ET.” We’ll be watching that one.
Never a dull day, lately.
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