US Economic Outlook CY26: What could shape markets

This week on Money and Investing, Mitch Olarenshaw and I take a close look at the United States economic outlook for 2026, breaking down the key forces shaping markets and what they may mean for investors.

1. Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation remains the main pressure point. We look at how rising or falling prices can change interest rate policy, slow or support growth, and affect everyday households as well as businesses.

2. Energy Costs and Tariffs

Energy prices act like a hidden tax. We talk through oil supply, geopolitics, and how tariffs may shift costs, trade flows, and investment decisions across the US economy.

3. Productivity, AI, and Growth

AI is changing how businesses operate. From data centres to automation, we discuss where productivity gains may come from, and the challenges of adapting workers and industries to new technology.

4. Jobs, Housing, and Consumer Spending

Employment remains strong, but pressures exist across blue-collar sectors. We also cover fixed-rate mortgages, housing starts, and how lower or higher borrowing costs can change spending.

5. Market Valuations and Sectors to Watch

We unpack earnings growth, stock valuations, and sectors that may hold opportunity, including technology, utilities, industrials, and financials, plus the risks that investors need to be mindful of.

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The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.