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If you want proof we’re well and truly exiting the COVID era, get this: two major developed economies have both cut interest rates this week.
But if the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are going to go gangbusters in response, we’ll have to wait until Friday night Australia time to get a glimpse. Perhaps Americans are jealous they weren’t the ones to do it first.
Canada’s central bank cut its rates by -25bps earlier in the week, and then overnight Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) did the same thing. While the finance community was widely tipping the ECB to do so, the Bank of Canada (BoC) decision caught many by surprise – including this finance journalist.
The European STOXX 600 index ended up 0.66% higher; and the FTSE 100 ended up +0.47%.
The responses may seem muted, but overall point to positive sentiment. European markets are less liquid than America and generally defined by a more tame overall atmosphere.
S&P’s Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) Composite Index ended up +0.37% higher overnight. Perhaps nobody knows how to party quite like the US – and by extension, Australia.
But Australian traders, investors, and market-watchers alike would be wise to keep an eye on Toronto.
What the TSX does in the coming weeks is likely to provide a not-entirely-unhelpful template on what to expect in Australia once the RBA cuts rates here.
Why do I say the TSX matters for ASX traders? Consider this: the Australian and Toronto exchanges both share one big, important similarity – both have a robust mining sector.
What that means is Canadian equity traders have something of an Australian mindset. The importance of mining to Canada’s economy (and therefore its bourse) is well understood and mirrors Australia’s export-based economy.
This also means that borrowing rates by miners in the country will likely be similar to those we see in Australia later on this year (or in 2025 if the market is right about when cuts are coming,) and we can also get an idea of how commodity price volatility – which has also defined the COVID era – will impact stocks in a ‘test’ environment, if you will, where rates are lower.
The BoC has also hinted it will cut rates again in July. Very interesting times.
But how long will it take for this new reality to become ‘felt’ by markets? Sometimes, there can be quite a lag between reality and the zeitgeist catching up.
Also worth noting: America posted very mixed economic data this week, but, let’s talk about that next Friday.
Australian Economy
- Nearly 50% of Australians with debt struggling to pay it off: ASIC
- The RBA, alongside Japan, the only major central bank at risk of hiking rates this year
International Equities
- BlackRock and Citadel team up to develop a Texas stock market
- India market rallies pre-open on Monday as Modi win expected
International Economies
- America posts mixed economic data through the week
- Europe cuts interest rates in June as widely expected
- Canada cuts interest rates, the first G7 nation to do so
- US job openings come in well below expectations as slowdown evidence builds
Commodities
- Iron Ore hits 7W low in Singapore below US$108/tn on Wednesday
- Cargill stops trading steel in China as property downturn proves untenable
- London Metals Exchange introduces Indonesian refined nickel contract onto its boards
