It’s been an interesting two weeks, largely because we haven’t heard too much from Donald Trump lately. The last bold and bodacious claims we got saw Trump heralding the fact the Dow Jones hit a record high last week; and the S&P 500 hit 7,000pts around the same time. Since then, not much.
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In the absence of the usual noise from Washington in 2026, the ASX was forced to stop paying so much attention to the United States and Wall Street and turn instead to…well, itself.
After Commonwealth Bank earnings last week helped push the XJO to a record high, or at least where it was last October, we’ve had other big name results drop this week, and based on the enthusiasm with which companies have been either rewarded or punished, it’s obvious that Australian market participants are firmly domestic-minded.
(In fact, for a three day stretch this week, the XJO did something different to what Wall Street did the night before – that is, perhaps sadly, quite noteworthy.)
So what to make of earnings season down under? It’s been a mixed bag of affairs. Nick Scali was punished last week for missing estimates; CBA posted a massive intraday jump.
Then this week we’ve had BHP celebrated by investors for fat dividends and record copper profits, though, I do have my concerns about BHP’s expectations Chinese seaborne iron ore demand will level out before 2030.
At the same time, more or less, we also learned that BHP exports of Jimblebar fines iron ore product to China dropped -80% in January compared to December. The Big Aussie didn’t spend much time, or any at all, meaningfully discussing that. I doubt they will unless dragged kicking and screaming to do so.
Here’s something else I found very interesting: in BHP’s half-year report, the word “India” was used more than “China.” That’s what I call compelling anec-data.
But earnings from other big names pointed to a strong Australian economy, or at least, a strong consumer – which are kind of the same thing. JB Hi-FI has revealed that Aussies continue buying electronics (laptops and TVs, headphones, fitness tech) and that sales weren’t extremely compounded into Black Friday, either.
US could get loud next week
All in all, you can see where I’m taking this, the ASX had a very Aus-centric week this week.
We shrugged off ongoing software-AI-tech-stock jitters in the US which remain ongoing, and so far, nobody seems too fussed that China’s Alibaba has released a new AI Agent called ‘Qwen3.5’ – AI Agents being at the centre of the latest tech scare.
Don’t expect it to last.
For one, Brent Crude prices are back to levels last seen in August 2025 (read: above US$70/bbl), and that’s because of an impending attack on Iran most market participants expect to happen if not this weekend, well, “within ten days.”
But for the last ten days, the US has been quietly amassing fighter aircraft in countries near Iran, as well as sending naval assets to the Sea of Oman. The real clincher?: military refuelling planes are publicly visible on multiple flight radar websites right now, so that tells you what you need to know.
It’s looking like a strike on Iran will happen. Whether that will look more like a small war or just another incursion like last year’s bunker buster incident we’ll only know in retrospect, but oil traders are feeling bullish. Even though that thesis doesn’t make much sense in 2026.
Time will tell.
And for dessert…
There’s something else interesting happening in the land of geopolitics and stock markets, it’s happening very close to us, and I’m willing to bet you likely haven’t heard of it.
It has nothing to do with New Zealand, and it has nothing to do with China.
The CEO of an entire nation’s stock market has quit; the President made his Nephew head of the central bank, and over the last month, this nation in question’s stock market has tanked.
Taking all bets. And the answer is: Indonesia!
Indonesia’s stock market is having a very bad time, to such extent, MSCI is prepared to de-list the country’s stock market off its ’emerging markets’ index because the monetary situation in the country has deteriorated fast.
But the Indonesian President, Prabowo Subianto, doesn’t appear to care.
He was more interested in attending Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ this week. Go figures.
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