Join our daily newsletter At The Bell to receive exclusive market insights
Welcome back to your stations. After a (hopefully) cruisy break period, we’re back into the thick of it. I’ve just finished up a three-week leave period, so I can’t complain too much, just that it’s a quiet start to the year, given that a whole lot of Australian-listed companies appear to still be on holiday.
Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.
So what, then, were the biggest things that broke over the holidays – for those who weren’t paying attention? Here’s the big three I think matter most.
1) Silver’s outpricing a barrel of oil
Here’s one that’s very historically unusual. Right now, as far as commodity markets go, safe haven metals are clearly the market’s key focus in a time of uncertainty, and not the blood of the global economy, oil. Perhaps we can glean insights here similarly to how the lumber-to-gold ratio suggests a risk-off vs. risk-on dynamic (storing gold to preserve wealth versus risking the wasted lumber cost in times of expansion).
Of course, it could also be evidence instead of just how badly the world has had to throw old assumptions out the window post-COVID-19, and perhaps it’s ultimate proof that the market is still in an era of broadly felt ‘FOMO.’ OPEC’s still-echoing production boosts from last year are also important here.
As at lunchtime Monday, January 5, we can plainly see the silver price has taken off in the last six months, which, in turn, is evidence of silver’s newfound satellite status when it comes to tracking the gold price.
With that said, gold and copper continue to show strong positioning at the start of what promises to be yet another volatile year, this the year of ’26.
2) If US invaded VNZ for oil, market’s waiting
In a move that will no doubt become a highly memorable opening parlay for the emerging calendar year of 2026, the American military, under the direction of President Donald Trump, invaded the capital city of Venezuela over the weekend and captured the nation’s leader, a dictator named Maduro.
If you wanted a better case study in grey-area-guys taking down the bad-guys, this is it. Maduro has long lived in Trump’s head, for some reason, and one popular theory is that the U.S. is truly interested in Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are among the largest untapped in the world.
Except, here’s the thing – whether you expected the invasion of VNZ to push oil prices up as the market got fears of a new international war, or if you expected the USA’s acquisition of one of America’s largest untapped oilfields to push crude prices down – well, neither camp has been vindicated yet.
Because, at time of writing, oil traders have largely reacted with a shrug. The price of Brent climbed just short of +0.5% on Monday.
What does this chart tell us? Well, more than anything, it shows us that right now, the average market pundit is apathetic on crude oil; that, unless we get a big shock from OPEC, the price will remain around where it currently is. After all, not even the invasion of Venezuela could meaningfully touch the price.
There is one thing to consider, however: The unfolding Maduro debacle has now seen overnight shares for the U.S. oil majors jump, with Chevron up +10% as at 1pm AEDT Sydney time on Monday, January 5.
3) The ASX 200 actually did manage a small Santa Rally
Finally, if you simply weren’t watching the market at all over Christmas because you were disgusted with the local bourse’s performance, well, I can’t blame you.
But you did, in that case, miss out on a little injection of good news, because quietly in the last three days of the trading year, the ASX 200 actually staged a rally. A little rally, to be fair, but a rally all the same.
Traders in 4DMedical (ASX:4DX) would’ve been happy when the price surged to $4/sh, then over $4.50/sh in early January, based on nothing but a new CFO and a total of zero revenues. If you want to look at 4DX as the new DroneShield (which I suggest one should), there’s proof of a risk-on mood from retail.
The XJO has climbed +1.4% in the last month, and on Monday, appears to be trading flat as the market awaits the next positive catalyst. At least it isn’t a sell-off.
Join the discussion: See what’s trending right now on HotCopper, Australia’s largest stock forum, and be part of the conversations that move the markets.
The material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.
