Are ACT’s new EV incentives enough to fix its transport emissions problem?

The ACT has unveiled another round of incentives to entice residents to switch to zero-emission vehicles as Australia’s capital attempts to quicken its transition to carbon neutrality.

The new incentives include two years of free registration for any new zero-emission vehicles, or ZEVs and, in some cases, full stamp duty exemption. These are in addition to the interest-free loans of up to $15,000 available for ZEV purchasers, first outlined the territory’s budget earlier this year.

The focus on ZEVs is part of the territory’s journey towards an ambitious 2045 net-zero carbon emissions target, and it seems transport’s carbon output is fast becoming the ACT’s biggest hurdle to meeting this goal.

According to government data, transport contributed to around 60 per cent of all of the ACT’s greenhouse gas output, with private vehicles making up much of that figure.

That said, these figures take into account the ACT’s renewable offset contributions to the national electricity grid and are not reflective of the actual sources of the territory’s energy use.

Put simply, the ACT still sources its electricity from the national grid, which is an 80-20 split of fossil fuels and renewables, respectively, with the majority generated in New South Wales.

However, in 2019 the ACT ramped up a carbon offset scheme, through which it invests in renewables contracts — chiefly wind and solar — for every watt of power it consumes from non-renewable sources through the national grid. This has led to the ACT touting a ‘100 per cent renewable’ electricity supply, effectively cutting its annual carbon output in half between 2018 and 2020.

This triggered a sharp drop-off in annual carbon emissions in the 2019-2020 reporting period and shot transport to the top of the territory’s carbon output contributors, making it the most pressing issue if the ACT wants to hit its 2045 zero emissions target.

This could prove a tricky task though, as the ACT’s transport emissions have refused to drop significantly in recent years and were actually increasing between 2013 and 2018.

Transport figures dipped slightly during the pandemic but, as an ACT-commissioned emissions report stated, “it seems likely that once the economic slow-down ends, road transport emissions will start growing again, unless there is a decisive change in trend, such as an accelerated uptake of electric vehicles”.

It is worth noting, however, that even if every car in the ACT was traded in for a ZEV today, all electric vehicles would still be charging from the national grid, which is still overwhelmingly made up of coal- and gas-generated power.

Putting that to one side, it’s clear that encouraging the transition to ZEVs is the ACT’s best bet if it wants to meet its 2045 zero-emissions deadline.

However with less than 1000 electric vehicles currently registered in ACT, compared to more than 300,000 traditional motor vehicles, and transport emissions across the country expected to rise post-pandemic, whether these incentives will have a substantial impact on the territory’s carbon output remains to be seen.