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When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Donald Trump and his Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office, the confrontation between the three men set off a flurry of developments which issued a challenge to other members of the international community regarding their defence contributions in support of Ukraine.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. – then led by Joe Biden – was one of several countries which provided military, humanitarian, and financial aid to Ukraine in addition to military intelligence.
But much of this hangs in the balance in the wake of the Oval Office meeting, in which President Trump – long noted for his closeness to Russian leader Vladimir Putin – accused Zelensky of not quite being sufficiently grateful for U.S. support, and told him he was “gambling with World War Three.”
Vance followed by asking, “Have you said ‘thank you’ once this entire meeting? No.”
Departing the White House, Zelensky went to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London for a summit there on 2 March to discuss how European nations – alongside Canada – could contribute to Ukraine’s defence during the war.
But questions remain: What this support will look like long term, how these countries might configure themselves around the U.S. if it cuts off support to Ukraine – and how that country might avoid such a consequence.
Tracking the fallout
Making things right with Washington certainly seems to be on Zelensky’s agenda: A few days after his confrontation with Trump and Vance, he used social media platform X to express regret about how things had gone, and underline his commitment to diplomatic engagement around the war.
“Our meeting in Washington… did not go the way it was supposed to be,” he wrote. “It is regrettable it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.”
Zelensky added Ukraine was “ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” stating he’s willing to work under Trump to secure this.
Crucially, he said he was still willing to sign a deal with the United States for the proposed development of Ukrainian critical minerals, which had been on the agenda of his meeting at the White House the previous week.
It is not yet clear whether these overtures would be enough to overturn Trump’s suspension of all aid to Ukraine, nor a more recent announcement that claimed the sharing of military intelligence was also on hold.
The latter was announced by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and followed by comments from CIA Director John Radcliffe on what Zelensky needed to do to reverse the policy.
Radcliffe claimed Trump “had a real question about whether President Zelensky was committed to the peace process, and he said, ‘Let’s pause, I want to give you a chance to think about that.'”
Where has Ukraine’s defence support come from?
One of Trump’s major claims amid these tensions is that the United States has taken on an “unfair burden” – compared to European countries in particular – when it comes to providing support to Ukraine.
And if analysis is confined to military spending alone, this is certainly the case.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a Germany-based research body scrutinising global issues, the U.S. contribution to military aid in the past three years is the equivalent of €64 billion, compared to €62 billion from European donors.
However, the trend is reversed when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid, with European sources allocating €70 billion to the US’ €50 billion. This also means the European contribution is higher overall.
Indeed, in a news report published as recently as February 14, the Kiel Institute argued “European donors have been the main source of aid to Ukraine since 2022, especially when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid.”
Altogether, it estimated Ukraine has received €267 billion of aid in the past three years, amounting to €80 billion a year. Of that, 49% was defined as military aid, 44% was financial support, 7% was humanitarian aid.
The Kiel Institute also suggested Trump’s election would be likely to keep U.S. contributions behind those of Europe after being overtaken by the latter in mid-2023, with European governments under pressure to step up their support initiatives.
Also noted was an increasing trend of collaboration between European nations for the provision of military weaponry, including the U.K.-led International Fund for Ukraine which combines contributions from multiple countries to buy military equipment for Ukraine, with a total allocation of €1.6 billion.
The majority of military aid across all donors had been sourced from existing arsenals, but more recently, weapons came to be sourced direct from industry.
A new challenge for the international community
While Trump’s decision to cut off military funding and the provision of intelligence to Ukraine present a significant setback for the eastern European country, it appears several of its other allies are intent on formulating a plan for its defense even beyond a peace deal.
At the March 2 summit – called by Starmer – the leaders of 18 countries, mostly in Europe, developed a four-point plan to reassure Ukraine of their support.
These included a pledge to continue providing military aid to the country, alongside economic pressure on Russia; a call for Ukrainian sovereignty to be recognised in any future peace talks; calls to boost the country’s defence capabilities even after peace was reached, to stave off a possible invasion; and agreement to form a ‘coalition of the willing’ to secure long term peace for Ukraine.
After the summit, which had been called just a week earlier, Starmer underlined the significance of this moment, and the decisions needing to be made, saying: “We are at a crossroads in history.”
While stating in the future, Europe might have to do the heavy lifting when it came to support of Ukraine – something which in the British case could involve “boots on the ground and planes in the air,” he acknowledged any agreement would need support from the U.S. – and has to include Russia.
Additional U.K. support was announced after the summit, comprising a £1.6 billion package of export finance to buy more than 5,000 air defence missiles, which would be built in Belfast.
This will add to an already announced loan of £2.2bn loan for more military aid, which has been backed by profits taken from frozen Russian assets.
With French President Emmanuel Macron, Starmer has also been progressing diplomatic efforts to secure peace, with both leaders separately telephoning Zelensky and Trump to finalise a deal in coming weeks.
No matter what happens next though, it will be a busy, and tense, few weeks ahead.
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