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It’s the start of Week 40 – yes, there’s only twelve weeks left to go – and after a fresh bout of rate hike concerns (to say nothing of the US-Iran war), the ASX200 is humbly green.
Or, at least, it’s up nearly two tenths of a per cent. Perhaps that’s the best we can ask for.
As per the above screenshot, the tech index (XTX) is in the red, but who really cares about that right now, what with the AI godheads all suddenly pretending to care about regulation.
In the first hour of trades, the materials sector is in the lead up nearly half a percent followed by financials and health care.
If you’re willing to be as cynical as I am, you could call that the Aussie special. We’ve come into a brave new week with the iron ore price up slightly at US$95/tn; but gold is hovering near US$4,2150/oz and copper hasn’t really moved one way or the other.
Still, BHP is above A$60/sh and the Big Aussie has clocked gains of >+43% YoY, so no worries there.
Meanwhile, CBA stocks are up ~+0.50% at the time of writing; and all the other big banks are in the green (though none are passing beyond +1% intraday gains at the time of writing.)
But it remains the case the US-Iran war has reminded Australian investors of what we really are: a sub-prime market compared to the US. While there are still some ripe stock pickings in every sector from biotech to telecomms, on the whole, it’s a bit depressing.
This feels a lot like the Dockers loss on the weekend, something this finance journalist doesn’t really want to talk about.
One big problem: all those same aforementioned big banks’ analysts see an RBA rate hike more or less baked in tomorrow. And as for commodity prices, well, it might depend on Donald Trump’s ‘Truth’ posts.
Personally I find myself wondering if we are going to see yet another Christmas go by sans a Santa Rally. I surely hope that isn’t the case. But in the current environment – where Wall Street’s sentiment gauge currently lands firmly on “Fear” – it’s perhaps hard to get excited.
In December last year, Morgan Stanley called the ASX200 landing on 9,250pts to end the 2026 calendar year off. If there’s either peace in the Middle East or some kind of contagion Wall Street rally, maybe that can be the case. But as of late September, that somehow feels far off.
At the time of writing, it’s a basket of easily juiced mining stocks making the top gainer board; but perhaps the fact 4DX Medical is back below A$4.00/sh is what one should be keeping an eye on.
Essentially, we are tied to America – always have been, probably always will be – but after a US rate hike and the US 10Y bond yield surpassing 5.1%, it’s not a given us Australians will get our groove back.
The Chalmers-Albo budget where CGT is involved has continued to rear its ugly head; auctions are slowing down and so are house prices. That’s good news for anyone looking to buy (this finance journalist included) but a fairly unwelcome development for those on the other side of the housing apartheid.
All in all, it’s a bit up-in-the-air at the moment for all concerned. And if the ASX200 was to close lower than Morgan Stanley’s EOY 9,250pts call, nothing would actually happen – it just might feel like the Dockers grand final for those in purple.
But as global uncertainty continues to bite, one does have to ask themselves: why not just start getting into US equities instead?
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