Market Open: ASX futures point higher as oil slides and metals recover

Australian shares are set for a stronger open, with ASX 200 futures up 55 points, or 0.62%, following a mixed session on Wall Street.

The overnight picture was far from uniform. The Dow pushed higher as investors rotated towards more cyclical stocks, but technology shares came under renewed pressure, dragging the Nasdaq lower. Concerns about the scale of AI investment also remain in focus, with Oracle planning a US$20 billion capital raising.

For local investors, the immediate focus is likely to be the recovery in metals, the sharp pullback in oil prices and today’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision.

Oil: Prices suffered their steepest decline in around three months as renewed US-Iran peace efforts eased concerns about supply disruptions.

Metals: A recovery in metals could provide some support for Australia’s resources sector.

Interest rates: The RBA’s latest decision will be the major domestic event, with investors watching both the rate announcement and accompanying commentary.

The RBA takes centre stage

The Reserve Bank announces its latest interest rate decision at 2:30pm AEDT (11:30am Perth time), followed by a press conference at 3:30pm AEDT.

Markets are expecting another increase in the cash rate, with attention likely to centre on the Bank’s assessment of persistent inflation, household spending and the outlook for economic growth.

A rate increase would add further pressure to mortgage holders and borrowers, while potentially providing support for bank margins. However, the broader implications for credit growth, housing activity and consumer spending will also be important.

Investors will also be watching US midterm election developments and further corporate results from offshore, with technology and AI spending remaining firmly in the spotlight.

Westpac result and RBA decision in focus

The S&P/ASX 200 lost 51.6 points, or 0.58%, on Monday to finish at 8,856.5, with eight of the 11 sectors closing lower.

Materials and gold stocks were among the weaker areas, while the major banks were mostly lower.

Westpac was a notable exception, finishing 1% higher after reporting FY26 statutory net profit of $6.8 billion. The bank announced a fully franked final dividend of 77 cents per share, taking its full-year dividend to $1.54.

However, the result also highlighted some areas of concern, including higher credit impairment charges and a softer net interest margin. Westpac also warned of a potentially deeper housing downturn.

Elsewhere, investors will be keeping an eye on the broader resources sector following the overnight recovery in metals prices, while the sharp decline in oil could influence sentiment towards energy stocks.

Oil takes a hit as diplomatic hopes improve

Commodity markets were mixed, with oil taking the biggest hit. Brent crude fell sharply after Iran’s leadership approved further discussions with Washington, raising hopes of progress towards ending the conflict and easing supply concerns.

The move could put pressure on energy producers if lower prices persist, although the geopolitical situation remains fluid.

Meanwhile, gold and other metals found some support, providing a potential lift for Australian miners after recent selling pressure. The strength of that recovery will be worth watching through today’s session.

Auravelle Metals (ASX: AUV) has completed the sale of the Skeleton Rocks project;

Noble Helium (ASX: NHE) is set to spin the bit with a rig mobilising to the Kinambo 1 well site;

RareX (ASX: REE) has confirmed a copper-nickel sulphide system and gallium at Khaleesi;

Tivan (ASX: TVN) has unveiled an MRE upgrade for the Speewah fluorite project; and

Evion Group (ASX: EVG) has flown a drone magnetic survey over the Carp fluorspar project.

That’s HotCopper’s Market Open, I’m Colin Sandell-Hay – happy trading.

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