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Alliance Aviation (ASX:AQZ) has voluntarily suspended shares on Tuesday, intending to go live again by Friday with news of a guidance downgrade for FY26 – something not particularly loved by HotCopper users.
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According to Alliance, the issue here is “recent repairs and maintenance costs and depreciation charges” have come in higher than anticipated, with some forum users confused as to how depreciation costs can be higher than expected. So far, that remains to be explained by the company later this week.
It’s guaranteed to put more turbulence under the company’s stock price (or around it, rather), which has already had a pretty volatile last thirty days.
On October 13, Alliance rocketed out of what partially felt like nowhere, based on an article in The Australian alleging Pacific Equity Partners (PEP), an investment bank, might be looking at buying out AQZ.
That was well received: Shares climbed from $1.99/sh to $2.50 without much trouble. That was even after AQZ came out on October 14 and confirmed ‘it wouldn’t comment on media speculation’ – as opposed to outright denying it, as the other option. So, shares have stayed at the ~$2.50/sh mark.
Whether that remains the case now is the big question. Because a material revenue downgrade right ahead of a buyout mightn’t be enough to kill the deal altogether, but it could give PEP the upper hand in negotiations – and it wouldn’t make sense for them to increase their offer, assuming those talks are being held, so it’s a pretty safe bet the AQZ share price will fall when it recommences trading regardless of what AQZ says in its next disclosure.
And only then, after that shock, will investors turn their attention to what AQZ management actually has to say about the situation.
As it currently stands, even after an October boost, shares are down -15% YTD and -1Y returns are down -8%.
And then there’s the five-year chart for the company:
AQZ last traded at $2.53/sh.
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