Chinese GDP data adds to uncertainty around Australia’s main trading partner

The National Bureau of Statistics of China has today released its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics for the second quarter of 2023, revealing that GDP grew only 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).

Year-on-year (YoY), GDP growth was up 6.3 per cent compared to Q2CY22 – but this misses some forecasts that suggested growth would be another per cent higher, at 7.3 per cent.

In a release, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), said the Chinese market had ‘gradually recovered’ with production supply continuing to increase, employment ‘generally stable’ and residents’ income was growing ‘steadily’.

“The national economy showed a good momentum of recovery,” the bureau reported.

Imports and exports for the year so far have increased by 2.1 per cent YoY, with exports up 3.7 per cent, while imports are down 0.1 per cent.

That was a stronger performance than in June alone, when exports and imports declined by 6 per cent YoY, with the total value of exports down by 8.3 per cent and imports down 2.6 per cent.

Interestingly, the latest data from China’s Customs Bureau shows exports fell at the quickest rate since the start of COVID.

The imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 8.9 per cent YoY, accounting for 52.7 per cent of the total value of imports and exports, and is 3.3 percentage points higher than for the same period of the previous year.

There continues to be outside expectations that the Chinese government may need to inject stimulus measures for industry, with a particular view on the country’s embattled property sector.

Youth unemployment has been a persistent issue in the country.

Commonwealth Bank economist Carol Kong told Reuters today’s data was evidence China’s post-COVID boom “is clearly over”.

Such a boom was expected, but some analysts at investment houses including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup question if this boom has even happened.