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The Australian market has been left reeling by the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and the flow-on effect that has seen the world slip into an energy crisis — and all the “ongoing claims of imminent peace” may not be enough to take things back to normal any time soon, Isaac McIntyre and Jonathon Davidson muse.
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Speaking on the HotCopper Wire in Week 14, McIntyre pointed out the Oz sharemarket just lost ~7.9% through March — it’s worst run since June CY22.
“Things started getting so bad last month that I was talking about tech corrections and recessions in my daily Market Open coverage as well as The ASX Today close column, when I was covering that last week,” McIntyre pointed out.
Things did recover a little, with a big boom on Tuesday (sparked by reports Trump had been speaking about an end to the war) helping the ASX 200 some +2.2% higher. Further articles surrounding Trump’s willingness to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran led a larger recovery, though that halted a little Thursday.
That led McIntyre and Davidson to again start scratching their collective heads over the core question many have been asking since early CY26: When will it all end?
“Well, there’s this national address from Trump, where he’s talked about ‘winding down’ the war and suggesting ‘all military objectives have been met’ from the U.S.-Israeli invasion. All very Trumpian from ol’ Donny, who’s basically yelling victory… but when he’s still telling his NATO allies and others (including us) to go get our own oil, that doesn’t quite scream that the end is actually in sight,” McIntyre said.
“It does all feel like nonsense,” Davidson said. “Every single time Donald Trump says Iran wants a ceasefire or whatever, Iran rejects it or denies it, and if not that, Trump then changes his mind 12 hours later and sends more troops to the Middle East, or there are even fresh strikes in Tehran, or whatever.”
The answer, the Market Link‘s senior finance journalist pointed out, may lie in Trump’s relationship with the ever-fickle U.S. ten-year bond yield.
“Trump does assert to watching the U.S. ten-year bond yield,” Davidson explained. “All of these peace statements and ceasefire claims, they seem to be manufactured to keep the U.S. ten-year bond yield at around 4.3%. Is that tin foil or just a coincidence I’m focusing on a little too much? I don’t think so.
Donny told the press before he watches the ten-year bond yield; that this is what to watch, and of course, the ten-year yield is basically a gauge of the USA’s ability to be able to pretend to be able to pay back its large debts.
“That thing hits 4.6%, and you’re going to get further panic. If it hits ~5%, very bad news for the U.S. dollar, or at least orthodox theory would maintain.”
It was a point we nearly hit last week, when the HotCopper Wire took a seven-day break while JD was back home in Darwin, where the bonds nearly hit 4.5% – and nearly instantly, we saw the most recent wave of “war might end soon” headlines coming out from the White House and Trump’s loyalists.
Now there are these ongoing claims of imminent peace coming out, and I think that’s a way to just keep the bond yield looking happy,” Davidson said.
“Of course, if America’s in war, it doesn’t need to hold elections, and so maybe this is all just a way to avoid midterms. I’d like to think that’s a conspiracy theory, but these days, Isaac, who knows. It’s approaching something beyond farce at this point, for which I don’t think we even really have a name. Apart from shitstorm.”
He added a thought: “All I know is I’m not putting money on anything on the ASX or anything else until after the weekend. God knows what will happen.”
You can listen to the full HotCopper Wire episode below.
You can also find the POD to listen to and download over on Spotify.
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