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Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) has released its Q3 2026 production results which reflect a 29% increase in copper production from its long-running Mongolian copper mine, Oyu Tolgoi.
It’s probable the market will look upon this favourably once the gates open given that copper prices are up +5.5% in the last month and +32% over the last year on the back of floods impacting Chilean copper production.
However, higher diesel prices stung the company in the quarter, as did a softer AUD; Rio reported the impact of the Middle East conflict on the company is ‘limited.’
Strengths in iron ore mining in WA’s Pilbara region were also highlighted but with iron ore prices having fallen back to around US$90/tn on the SGX, it’s likely the copper result will be of more interest to investors.
(That said, zooming out beyond just Oyu Tolgoi, Rio Tinto’s YTD copper equivalent production jumped only around ~1% which also factors in iron ore mining in the Pilbara.)
There’s also been ongoing development at the Guinea-based Simandou mine which could end up threatening WA’s overall iron ore advantage.
At the Simandou iron ore project, which is heavily backed by Chinese state-owned entities – China wants to lessen its reliance on Australian iron ore – production run-rates hit 10Mtpa in Q3.
By the second half of 2028, Rio Tinto expects the Simandou project to boast a 60Mtpa production run-rate.
Aluminium performance was described as stable while lithium production increased 33% YTD, responding to a more promising commodity price environment, though we’ve seen carbonate futures tumble nearly -20% this month.
At the same time, lithium prices remain +50% higher than where they were this time last year (a/a 9.40am AEDT).
The company reported on Wednesday that ‘big battery’ Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSies) are the driving force behind lithium demand in the current era given EV rebates in China and the US continue to unwind.
Domestic iron ore production in China has dropped -8% in the quarter due to floods; copper concentrate remains tight but high sulphuric acid prices are offering relief for smelters who can on-sell sulphuric acid as a byproduct; the global aluminium market remains in deficit.
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