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Five years on from the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on world markets, things are getting steady again – with inflation coming back to target in many countries and reasonable growth being observed.
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However, headwinds remain: Particularly uncertainties brought on by a new Donald Trump Presidency in the United States and tensions in Europe and other regions.
That was the message from Tony Brennan, chief investment strategist with Canaccord Genuity, at the RIU Explorer’s Conference in Fremantle on Tuesday.
Addressing a packed audience at the opening session, where this HotCopper writer was in attendance, Mr Brennan said things were “getting back on track for the global outlook,” but warned investors needed to watch future uncertainties.
Expanding on the first theme, Mr Brennan said we were “getting to the end of the pandemic, and back to a sustainable economy.”
He continued: “Growth is better than normal in conditions of high inflation, and it should be back to target in 12 to 18 months.”
Notably, there had been a trend continuing since the beginning of COVID-19 where services played a crucial role in offsetting subdued manufacturing data, which had been hit by higher rates and energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But barring threats from a potential trade war, Mr Brennan suggested this sector would also move to a more optimistic track in the future.
In terms of global growth in 2025, he declared, “We’re on a path that allows for steady expansion, not quick rebound.”
There are some issues to watch though – beginning with large budget deficits among many national economies. Chief among them is the U.S.
“It has one of the biggest deficits outside a (period of) war,” he said. Trump’s plan to introduce tax and spending cuts could blow this out of the water though.
“You get to a point where the debt is unsustainable: This is the uncharted territory we have to watch,” Mr Brennan said, before adding that other Trump policies – including deportations and trade wars – could also add to U.S. inflation.
But given the greater importance of underlying global fundamentals, Mr Brennan said in the opening address, the best policy was to “wait and see.”
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