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Greetings and welcome to HotCopper’s The ASX Today for Tuesday of Week 8, I’m Jon Davidson. It has to be said, Australia’s “Mag2” stocks – the in-house term we at HotCopper have been using for the Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) and BHP (ASX:BHP) – are having a very good first half of FY26.
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Commonwealth pushed the XJO to a new record high earlier this month, and while we haven’t done that today, BHP jumped around +7%, its best day on record or one of them, after posting a fat divvy and strong profits.
But underneath the glossy headline numbers, which no doubt have been lifted by a two-prong metals rally, first in October last year and then again to kick off 2026, there are signs of looming structural change.
For one, BHP expects its seaborne iron ore trade to become diversified in the next few years, which is a non-contentious way of saying Chinese demand is expected to plateau before 2030. So, who else will BHP sell its ore to? Especially seeing as Jimblebar fines exports to China collapsed -80% in January?
Well, India, for one. BHP expects India’s domestic iron ore supply to be used up by internal demand, meaning they’re basically guaranteed to need more iron ore from abroad in a not-too-distant future, we’re talking a timeline of half a decade here, per BHP’s analysis. In the background, BHP remains tight-lipped over hostile negotiations with China’s state-linked iron ore buying giant China Mineral Resources Group.
But most notable of all? The word “India” popped up in BHP’s half-year results more than the word “China.” Let that sink in.
Elsewhere, JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) keeps climbing after a better-than-expected result on Monday, and at HotCopper, we’re excited to attend the RIU Explorers’ Conference on Wednesday, where we’ll be bringing you The ASX Today live from the floor.
Around the traps, software jitters continue to feed into the AI trade with WiseTech (ASX:WTC) down -3% and Data Centre giant NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) lost -1.3%. Judo Bank’s Net Interest Margins came in above expectations, but market response wasn’t exactly dramatic; banks have already run hard in recent history.
Seek Ltd (ASX:SEK), meanwhile, dropped somewhat through Tuesday morning after it flagged weaker volume growth, which means less job ads being factored in, while its operations in China, currently suffering a 2008 moment if you look at its housing market, are losing the company tens of millions of dollars.
That’s the ASX Today for Tuesday, I’m Jon Davidson. Have a great night, and we’ll see you tomorrow at the RIU Explorers’ Conference.
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