The ASX Today: Relative calm didn’t last long as Brent back to US$100/bbl; March RBA hike priced in?

Greetings and welcome to HotCopper’s the ASX Today, I’m Jon Davidson and after an attack on a Thai cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, another wave of panic selling is back as investors brace for more pain to come.

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There’s also the question of what exactly Thailand have done wrong, but that doesn’t matter more than the fact this latest Iran war is increasingly global. 

In fact, a spokesperson for the Iranian army has since warned the collective West that it will do everything it can to push the price of Brent to $200 a barrel, which appears to have caused its intended effect.

Strikes in Oman saw Brent hit $100 a barrel again intraday and a massive gas plant in Qatar has also been mothballed, so you can probably expect to see more green shoots for energy stocks in the trading days ahead. 

Turning back home, the Australian 10 year bond yield is at a 15 year high, nearly 5%, following all four major banks tipping an interest rate hike next week; and it appears to be already assumed by all that Australian inflation will in fact get worse on the back of higher oil prices. It’s almost like we’re back in the pandemic. 

That’s especially true when you look at coal stocks. The price of coal has gone up overnight as traders start to bet that demand will get louder as higher oil prices incentivise cheaper fuels for generation; both Yancoal and Whitehaven were trading higher intraday on Thursday.

Maybe a good time to place a long-term investment into air conditioner companies, Morgan Stanley already are. 

Elsewhere, tech stocks saw more battering, though that was due more to interest rate expectations and not necessarily another AI scare, though Atlassian’s job cuts announcement this morning probably didn’t help.

Spare a thought for Digico REIT investors, the stock is down -5% on Thursday compounding a twelve month decline of over -50%. The stock listed in late 2024 just under $5 a pop, it’s now worth around $1.70 – confirming the suspicions of some analysts who were never quite sold.

Finally, Australian KFC owner Collins Foods jumped +6% to $10.00 a share after it announced it would be purchasing more KFC restaurants in Germany, where apparently the market sees more growth to come.

The company believes Germany is underpenetrated with KFC stores being disproportionately sparse compared to other major competitors like Maccas; and in between the lines, I think I can sniff out an immigration-minded investment thesis there, too, seeing as Bavaria is facing a workforce shortfall. 

That’s the ASX Today for Thursday, I’m Jon Davidson, have a fantastic evening, probably don’t look at your portfolio, and we’ll see you on Friday. 

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