Unemployment expectations correctly called today’s 4.3% rate

While the jump in unemployment to 4.3% revealed by today’s Australian Bureau of Statistics data caught some by surprise, there were early signs.

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Earlier this week, a Westpac survey reflected that unemployment expectations in the country are rising – with respondents collectively seeing a gradual increase to 5%.

Worth noting: The unemployment rate in Australia’s two most populous states, Victoria and New South Wales, sits higher than the national rate at 4.6% and 4.4% respectively. But most shocking is that the economy only added 2,000 jobs in the period – as opposed to expectations for 20,000.

It’s unsurprising, then, that the usual crowd are now coming out in favour of Reserve Bank rate cuts. Why the RBA was wrong to hold last month, why the RBA needs to hurry up and cut rates next month, blah blah.

But of course, with global tariffs set to kick in, again, now on August 1, Australia’s softening jobs market (at least as suggested by this latest data) doesn’t quite negate the fact massive uncertainty is still the name of the game.

Just look at Alcoa (ASX:AAI) – which today said it has incurred A$170 million in costs, importing product into the US from Canada.

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While that’s just a matter of Alcoa being heavily U.S.-based, it does show that Australian businesses aren’t free from global trade implications.

Especially if Trump decides to take issue with Albanese saddling up with Xi Jinping in light of our recent move not to play ball with his recurring bouts of interest in Australia’s healthcare space.

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