Vibes-based commodity supercycle? BHP nears record $50/sh mark

BHP (ASX:BHP) has inched further towards the $50/share mark on the back of a late CY25/early CY26 everything-metals-rally, effectively its all-time high, and enough to more or less make it equal to the other “Mag Two” stock we have Down Under, the Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA).

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The metals rotation, then, comes full form after a somewhat uncertain start last year. Whether or not the metals rally lasts with this amount of gusto through 2026 remains to be seen, but it’s almost guaranteed it will be (another) good year for metals, or rather, the publicly-listed companies that deal with them. Ideally profitably.

This isn’t the first time BHP and CBA have come close to parity, and while you might hear a lot of people get excited about BHP overtaking CBA’s cap, you’d still be forced to realise that we’re an export economy that also likes houses. So, of course, BHP and CBA are the two biggest companies, which makes so much sense it’s unremarkable, really.

What is more exciting about all the suggested BHP upside is that it speaks to a global metals rally. Gold shot out of the darkness like a shining light, and it feels like its gravity has sucked everything along with it.

Neodymium’s up +15% MoM, tin prices are up +20, rhodium up nearly +30%, aluminium up nearly +11%, indium is up nearly +40% – can you see a theme there, with metals linked to silver? – that’s not an exhaustive list. Even uranium is having a good run, and the Nuclear Energy Index measured by TradingEconomics is up nearly +20% MoM.

How much longer can this go on? Who knows. But Australian analysts have been predicting for months now that we could be on the verge of a new commodities supercycle (read: metals).

We can only know for sure in retrospect, but looking around the traps – and at an XJO eyeing off some 8,900 points for the first time since October 2025 – it’s perhaps starting to feel a little bit like that.

BHP last traded at $49.63/sh.

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