In last week’s wrap I ran with the headline that the ASX hit a fresh all-time-high last Friday.
Well, today, it’s done it again. While the ASX200 hit a new record, it was really the All Ords that had the psychologically eye-grabbing number – that index has crossed the 8,100pts mark for the first time in history.
That happens after the US Fed chief Jerome Powell told US Congress overnight that the first batch of rate cuts are “not far” away.
This all coincides with record climbs in gold and bitcoin, which one Bank of America strategist believes has a lot to do with the fact US debt is climbing US$1T every 100 days.
This catalyst has been largely overlooked in the financial press in favour of geopolitics risk, but, ought to be noted.
Luckily, the US government has done what it does best and passed another bill keeping it going til September, in terms of looming shutdown risks.
But this week we also also learned Donald Trump’s only real threat to his campaign dropped out of the GOP race, all but guaranteeing we’ll see Biden and Trump go head to head later this year for yet another US election.
How many voters will roll their eyes and fail to turn up out of protest remains to be seen. In the meantime, Biden is getting the US Navy to help build a seaport to provide aid to the Gaza Strip – a move which a cynic would say is more to do with getting votes from Muslim voters and those Americans who identify as Palestinian.
And so what about Australia? It’s been a fairly quiet week here, though, Barclays did call a Q3 cut on the back of weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 of CY2023. At least, less than what ANZ expected.
The China ‘Two Sessions’ meeting ended up being a bit lacklustre, despite a lot of positive talk.
New TMO writer Caroline Smith noted that investors were spooked by a lack of certainty around stimulus, EV demand, construction momentum, and generally how exactly China expects to clock 5% GDP growth this year as its economy clearly circles in the doldrums.
Also: Sweden has joined NATO, and a group of far left “eco-fascists” have been blamed by Musk for setting fire to a Tesla factory in Berlin.
Here’s the headlines that mattered this week which are worth recapping as we move forward into Week 11 of 2024.
Here’s the headlines that mattered this week:
Australian Economy
- Barclays Australia calls a Q3 CY2024 RBA rate cut, challenging NAB’s Q4 prediction
- Australia GDP growth for Q4 of CY2023 at 0.2%; below ANZ estimates of 0.3% and confirming four quarters of decline
Australian equities
- The ASX200 hit a fresh all time high of 7,852pts on Friday 8 March
- The All Ords, meanwhile, hit a fresh high above 8,100pts
Overseas News
- Goldman Sachs cuts Apple from top stocks list on weak iPhone demand in China
- The Japanese stock market hit an all time high midweek breaching the 40,000 level
- Biden blocks China from buying oil from the US strategic reserve
- Biden admin chucks US$3B aside for domestic nuclear power development
- Elon Musk and Donald Trump reportedly met up in Florida
- Sweden has joined NATO
The Week Ahead
Tuesday March 12
- Australian NAB Business Confidence data for February
- UK Unemployment data
- US Core Inflation data for February 2024
Wednesday March 13
- UK GDP Growth MoM data for January 2024
Thursday March 14
- US Retail Sales MoM data for February 2024
- US Continuing Jobless Claims (4Wavg) for March 2024
Friday March 15
- Chinese House Price data YoY for February 2024