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Good morning, I am Colin Sandell-Hay and welcome to Hot Copper’s Market Open.
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The global oil issue may be further impacted by a new crisis, with the United Arab Emirates set to withdraw from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries today.
The UAE announced on April 28, 2026, that it will depart OPEC and OPEC+, on May 1, depriving the groups of their third and fourth-largest oil producer, respectively.
Global oil prices set a four year high overnight with Brent futures hitting US$126 a barrel with negotiations between the US and Iran showed little sign of resolving, before prices dropped to US$111 a barrel ahead of the expiry of the June contract.
The ASX 200 is again tipped to be impacted by continued selling pressure following eight-days of decline.
Meanwhile, on an energy note, Australia’s PM Anthony Albanese has told a WA Chamber of Minerals and Energy gathering that the federal budget will not undermine existing contracts on gas exports.
“Australian resources and Australian gas, has been critically important to the assurances we have received for future supplies of petrol, diesel and fertiliser,” he told a large audience,
“And the middle of a global fuel crisis is the worst possible time to jeopardise these partnerships, or the investment that underpins them.”
Locally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has further highlighted the impact of the Middle East crisis.
In a market update, the ABS said prices for imports rose 0.1 per cent in the March quarter 2026.
Petroleum and petroleum products recorded the highest quarterly rise since the June quarter 2022 at 9.8%.
Sue-Ellen Luke, ABS’ head of prices statistics, said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a surge in oil prices in the latter part of March quarter.
“Fuel is a significant contributor to import prices. Petroleum and petroleum products were over a tenth of the value of Australia’s total imports last financial year.”
ASX stocks to watch
On the market front, after years of fighting the NSW government and greens over its PEP-11 offshore oil and gas permit, Advance Energy has received poll results showing growing support for proposed gas exploration off the coast of the Hunter Region.
Listed BPH Energy (ASX: BPH) holds a 35.8% direct interest in Advent Energy, while its wholly owned subsidiary Asset Energy is the 85% participant in the PEP-11 JV with Bounty Energy (ASX: BUY).
The polling commissioned by Advent Energy shows that public support for gas exploration in the area remains significantly stronger than opposition.
The polling found a much higher level fear of the impacts of likely gas shortages in the region rather than the concerns over plans to extract gas offshore.
Geopacific Resources (ASX: GPR) has undertaken a major leadership transition ahead of Woodlark gold development in PNG; and
Critical Resources (ASX: CRR) increased tungsten as a priority after completion of New Zealand fieldwork
Now – in forex, the Oz dollar buys 0.719
In commodities, all in the greenback, at the time of going to press
Brent Crude is down to $111.230
Iron Ore up 0.70% to $107.80 in Singapore,
Gold is up 1.69% to $4622.86; and
US natgas futures was up 3.95% to $2.7515 per gigajoule.
That’s HotCopper‘s Market Open, I’m Colin Sandell – good luck today.
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