Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

Despite the fact NYMEX uranium futures prices remain within all-time-high territory (ignoring 2006-2007) and well above pre-Fukushima levels, uranium stocks are being slammed on Friday.

Spot prices for uranium fell overnight to US$85.00/lb, but once again, that’s actually above where uranium prices were before the Fukushima nuclear reactor event caused a 10-year uranium winter, if you will.

So what’s going on?

You could say it’s poetic: the reason uranium prices started going up in 2024 in the first place is the same reason why traders are now selling off uranium stocks.

It’s all to do with Kazatomprom – Kazakhstan’s Russian-backed uranium producer, and effectively by chance, the world’s largest producer of uranium.

In short, Kazatomprom was hit with a raft of production issues in early 2024, and that was the very same catalyst ultimately responsible for driving uranium prices above US$100/lb earlier this year. No shortage of microcaps have since pivoted to the nuclear feedstock fuel.

Another major producer, Cameco, then said it would boost output by up to 45Mlbs of uranium per year through the 2020’s – that was why uranium fell to the US$80-90 range and dipped from its triple digit status.

But now, Kazatomprom’s production issues doesn’t look like they’re as bad as what markets were expecting – and so people are selling, expecting uranium prices to fall further.

In fact, the world’s largest uranium producer boosted output by 6% in the first half of this year.

Still subdued compared to what the company would probably like to be producing, but all the same, sustained output growth – and that is what has people worried. Combine that with Cameco’s ongoing plans to continue boosting production in the next few years, and you’ve got enough there to make traders take gains and leave before it gets worse.

Let’s take a look at the damage. All prices are correct as of 1.00pm AEST on Friday:

Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) is down -16.5% to $1.08/sh

Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) is down -13.4% to $3.16/sh

Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) is down -11.7% to $10.30/sh

Nexgen Energy (ASX:NXG) is down -13.5% to $9.01/sh (worsened by CapEx projections)

Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) is down -14.4% to $2.56/sh