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If you’re wondering why Lynas Rare Earths fell over -10% on Thursday based on apparently nothing, look no further than China.
Right now, Donald Trump is visiting President Xi, and that’s led to hopes the US-China trade war might be about to simmer down.
Whether or not that proves to eventuate is pending and it would perhaps be an ambitious thing to hope for, given all the behavioural data we have to work on when it comes to Trump. Friday morning Australia time, the BBC is reporting that no trade deal has come to the fore.
It wasn’t just Lynas churning on Thursday. Gina Rinehart-backed Arafura Rare Earths took a dip down nearly -10% in kind; Brazilian Rare Earths fared better but fell -2.8% on comparatively lower volumes; Iluka fell around the same level down just over -2.2%.
It wasn’t uniform. Ionic Rare Earths climbed nearly +3% intraday on Thursday, albeit on around $350K worth of turnover – not exactly big volume.
The intraday Friday session will be one to watch for rare earths lovers.
With ASX futures pointing towards a green day – following a red-streak-breaking Thursday session – it’s possible we could see some relief flowing back into the REE companies that fell just a day ago.
That’s because, per BBC reporting, Trump and Xi failing to arrive upon a trade deal is good news for Australian REE stocks.
That’s because a world where China and the US don’t overcome their differences, especially if it comes to critical metals supply, that’s good news for Australia.
Long story short: the thinking goes that without Chinese supply, the United States will need to come to us for the obscure metals that go into everything from microchips to defence materials.
(Remember October 2025? At least this is a macro consideration that exists outside of the Strait of Hormuz.) It’s also worth pointing out Neodymium prices are up over +30% YTD, with futures for that rare earth in particular often perceived as a guiding light for the rest of the mineral catalogue.
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