ASX Today: Qantas earnings slump, investors bet on rate hike

Australian shares are a little under pressure today, with hotter inflation pushing markets closer to pricing another RBA rate hike. Investors are now putting a roughly 50 per cent probability on a September rate rise, while a November move is almost fully priced.

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The ASX 200 was down 0.7 percent today, despite a fresh batch of company results helping to drive some big moves across the market.

That shift is weighing particularly heavily on consumer stocks, with JB Hi-Fi down 3 per cent and Harvey Norman off 1 per cent. Wesfarmers is also 1.3 percent lower after reporting a 1.8 per cent decline in statutory profit to $2.87 billion, despite stronger earnings from Bunnings and Kmart.

In the transport sector, Qantas is in focus after posting underlying profit before tax of just over $2 billion for FY26, down 14 per cent. It’s blaming a massive spike in fuel costs and the Iran war on its big profit slump. The airline expects higher fares and capacity changes will help absorb a projected $3.6 billion fuel bill. Despite all that, the stock is still up more than 4 per cent.. reinforcing that these results were broadly in line with expectations.

IGO is back in the black for FY26, revelling in stronger Greenbushes earnings. Its share of profit from Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia and cash generation from Nova are primarily driving the improvement. Shares are up 2.6 per cent intraday.

Ramsay Health Care is one of the day’s stronger performers, jumping 14.7 per cent after its FY26 earnings beat expectations. Underlying EBITDA reached $2.34 billion, up 9 per cent, while underlying profit came in at $364 million.

Mayne Pharma is heading the other direction though, with net profit plunging 90 per cent to $31.2 million. Revenue dropped 6 per cent to $383 million, with the company pointing to disruption surrounding Cosette’s takeover bid.

And Karoon Energy has reported a sharp decline in first-half earnings. Net profit fell 62 per cent, while revenue dropped 21 per cent. The company says production disruptions affected its Brazilian and US operations, but expects a stronger second half after completing investment work at Bauna.

So, rate expectations are firmly back in focus, while another heavy earnings slate is creating plenty of movement across the market.

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